By Afnan Wasif
On February 24, 2022 President Putin launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine. This was a major conflict with the direct involvement of Russia after World War 2. Before this incident, the US was considering the re-emergence of Russia as a threat to herself.
All the European nations also felt a threat from Russia after the invasion. As in this conflict, a major power is involved so it has obvious repercussions on international security.
Destruction of infrastructure and casualties of Ukrainian civilians have forced them to flee their homes in search of safety, assistance, and protection. As a result of this conflict, approximately five million people have become refugees. These refugees have mostly found refuge in European countries such as Poland, Romania, and Hungary. Their presence may become a real and potential threat to the host’s internal stability and global security. There may emerge a situation of tension between newcomers and native populations of host countries due to competition for scarce goods, land, and resources. They also demand economic assistance and social services from the host government and in case host countries are unable to do so they will face international pressure demanding the fulfillment of the basic needs of refugees. Ultimately, the flow of refugees to other countries disturbs international security.
Ukraine contributes 50% of the global sunflower oil supply, 10% of the worldwide grain supply, and 13% of the global corn supply. This year now up to 30% area in Ukraine will not be utilized to produce such agricultural products because of the Russian attack. Supply chains have been disrupted due to the closure of the Black Sea ports. Because of such blockades, the lack of production of enough food commodities will affect the availability of food for people around the globe. It also causes the price increase of food items in the short term and shortages in long run. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens international food security.
After the invasion, Ukraine’s neighboring countries and European nations sensed that Putin would push beyond Ukraine’s borders. They are passing through a state of ambiguity that Russia may attack us. They have started piling up the arms and weapons. NATO has started large military exercises in Poland and in other allies’ countries. They are intended to invest massively to attain hardcore power to counter the possible threat from Russia. For example, Germany has announced to allocate 110 billion dollars to further boost its defense capabilities. It will eventually lead to an arms race and the arms race is a substantial threat to international security.
After the coronavirus pandemic, the Russian invasion harshly hit economic progress all across the globe. Inflation rates are increasing immensely. Inflation in the energy sector is unchecked. Russia is a major supplier of oil and gas. To restrain Russia from further escalation the USA and European nations imposed economic sanctions on her. To counter these sanctions, Russia has partially or wholly halted oil and gas supplies to Europe. The decrease in the availability of these goods has considerably increased the prices. To control the energy crisis, the US has announced to release of oil from its strategic reserves. Other Western countries are subsidizing oil and gas products to bring down the hike in prices. Consequently, the global economic condition is badly affected.
Impact on Foreign Policy of Pakistan:
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Pakistan’s foreign policy is under pressure from Europe and America. Pakistan’s premier visit to Russia was perceived as the endorsement of Russia’s invasion by the Western world. They were demanding that Pakistan stand wholly with Ukraine and extend her support for Ukraine. They were trying to dictate our foreign policy. The Ukraine crisis has brought political instability to Pakistan. It has badly affected the internal matters of Pakistan.
Possible options for Pakistan’s Foreign Policy:
Pakistan must maintain a nonaligned posture in its foreign policy and it must protect and prioritize its national interest. Pakistan must endorse only a peaceful and diplomatic solution to this conflict. She must remain neutral and not join any camp politics as she did in the cold war. She must maintain equilibrium in her diplomatic relations with the USA, Russia, and European Union. Pakistan must condemn innocent civilian casualties and support the humanitarian aid process.
For example, India is maintaining its neutral role and emphasizing a diplomatic resolution of the conflict. She is maintaining strategic relations with the USA and importing oil from Russia at the same time. She is protecting her national interest while equally maintaining relations with major powers. Despite the Western pressure, India has abstained to vote against Russia in United Nations. Hence, Pakistan must adopt a neutral and peaceful foreign policy in order to protect its own national interest.
The author is a student of BS Strategic Studies at National Defence University, Islamabad. He could be reached at afnanwasif84@gmail.com
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