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Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday confirmed that a “final agreed-upon” text of the peace deal between Iran and the United States had been reached.

A day prior, US President Donald Trump said the United States and Iran could sign a peace deal as soon as this weekend, which, if finalised, would be the most significant diplomatic breakthrough yet to end the months-old war.

“We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “The strait will officially open as soon as we sign, which could be soon, very soon, maybe over the weekend in Europe,” he said.

In a post on X, PM Shehbaz said Islamabad was working “closely” with both sides to finalise the next steps of the process.

“Peace has never been this close as it is now.”

The premier also cautioned against an “incessant misinformation campaign being waged by those who want to sabotage the peace deal”.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made similar comments, calling the potential deal the “Islamabad memorandum of understanding”.

“The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer,” he wrote on X, urging the press to refrain from speculating until it is finalised.

“In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course.”

Earlier today, Trump rejected reports about the terms of a possible deal with Iran in a post on Truth Social, asserting that they have “nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing”.

He added that Tehran needed to “get their act together, and fast”.

Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance issued a statement of his own on X to dispel “fake information” revolving around the possible agreement.

“First, the Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting,” he wrote on X.

“The deal is structured to ensure that the US and its allies’ concerns are prioritised, and that if the Islamic Republic of Iran meets its obligations, then economic benefits will flow to them and to the entire region.”

He added, “This deal has the potential to remake the region and lead to lasting peace.”

On Wednesday night, it looked like war had resumed, with Washington and Tehran trading strikes after an American Apache attack helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz.

The two countries traded strikes again on Thursday, with Trump warning that he had planned “bigger” bombing raids today.

However, he cancelled the strikes following discussions with the highest levels of leadership in Tehran.

“Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkiye, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others,” he wrote on Truth Social.

The war started on February 28 with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, with both countries trading attacks until a ceasefire was agreed upon in April, with Pakistan acting as a mediator. A round of talks was held in Islamabad that month, though no deal was reached after 21 hours of negotiations.

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ISLAMABAD: PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari on Friday welcomed Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s statement regarding the formation of a government in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and expressed his gratitude.

The PPP is all set to form a government in the region after it gained 11 out of 24 seats in the GB Legi­slative Assembly, according to the unofficial results (Form-47) of the June 7 elections.

According to Radio Pakistan, the prime minister assured full support from the PML-N to the PPP on government formation.

The prime minister said the PML-N has decided to sit on the opposition benches in the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly, but its elected members will vote in favour of the PPP to form the government.

In a statement, Bilawal said that recognising the PPP’s majority in GB is the continuation of a democratic tradition and added that the party views the premier’s invitation to form the government as a “positive step”.

“As a result of a consensus agreement, the positions of governor and deputy speaker of Gilgit-Baltistan will be allocated to the PML-N,” he was quoted as saying. “The PPP will utilise all its capabilities to serve the people of Gilgit-Baltistan.”

The party chairman specifically thanked the people of GB, saying that by placing their trust in the PPP, they entrusted the responsibility of safeguarding their property rights, employment rights, and constitutional rights to the party.

“The Pakistan Peoples Party will fulfil this responsibility effectively and with dedication,” he concluded.

A day earlier, delegations of the PPP and PML-N met in GB to discuss proposals for forming a government in the region after the recent elections. Key leaders from both parties held detailed consultations on government formation proposals.

In its statement, the PPP described the talks as a “major breakthrough”, saying both parties agreed to present proposals to their respective central leaderships.

It said the discussions also covered political cooperation and various national and regional issues.

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ISLAMABAD: Provincial fiscal operations provided significant support to the federal government in improving the ove­rall fiscal situation in the outgoing year.

“The dedicated efforts at the provincial level for effective resource mobilisation and prudent expenditure management triggered higher growth in provincial revenues relative to expenditures,” the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2025-26 acknowledged.

All four provinces collectively achieved the highest-ever surplus of Rs1,636.1 billion in July-March, compared to Rs1 trillion last year. Provincial revenue incr­eased by 12.9pc during the same period.

Sajid Amin Javed, Deputy Executive Director at SDPI, said the Centre was “fair” to urge provinces to share fiscal responsibility, but should lead by example by broadening its own tax net. He noted that since the federal government cannot constitutionally compel provinces to relinquish their NFC share, it has resorted to a “moral language of shared responsibility.”

He stressed that the fiscal relationship between Centre and provinces must be reciprocal. Given that provincial tax collection remains well below par, he recommended revamping the NFC formula to incentivise revenue generation and reduce the weight of population as a distribution criterion. He further cautioned that the current freeze on NFC funds is a temporary measure, and that a lasting solution must be discussed at the 11th NFC meeting.

A former provincial finance minister said the development budgets and SOE expenses of both the Centre and provinces needed “serious review” to create fiscal space and provide the public relief from over-taxation. He pointed to government departments that had become redundant after the 18th Amendment, but continued to burden federal and provincial exchequers. “Just look at the state’s splurge in excess of 65 per cent over the last three years on salary increases and perks and privileges — well above inflation — and its ‘bloated size’ even after the 18th Amendment, while it was tightening the belt of the rest of the population,” he added. By not addressing the fundamental flaws in the economy, this model will remain unsustainable.

Provincial tax collection rises

The provinces own tax collection and development spending are expected to rise by nearly 26pc and 39.6pc respectively during the outgoing financial year, according to the survey.

The size of provincial budgets is estimated at Rs9,913.6 billion in FY2026, up from revised estimates of Rs8,159.9bn in FY2025 — a growth of 21.5pc. Current expenditures are projected to increase by 14.8pc while development spending is expected to rise sharply by 39.6pc. Total revenues were budgeted at Rs10,127.6 billion, showing growth of 17.9pc.

Under the NFC Award, federal transfers to provinces were budgeted at Rs8,206 billion in FY26. In the first three quarters, these rose 10.7pc to Rs5,630.8 billion. Province-wise shares were: Punjab Rs4,076bn, Sindh Rs2,043.8bn, KP Rs1,342.8bn (inclusive of 1pc for war on terror), and Balochistan Rs743.2bn.

Provincial own revenue receipts grew 28.3pc to Rs1,138.2 billion, with tax collection up 25.8pc to Rs860.7 billion and non-tax revenue up 36.7pc to Rs277.5 billion — supported by higher receipts from hydroelectricity profits, mark-up, and other sources. Federal transfers nonetheless remained the dominant source, contributing around 78pc of total provincial revenues.

Published in Dawn, June 12th, 2026

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Mexico ignited their World Cup party with a dominant 2-0 victory over nine-man South Africa on Thursday as the biggest ever edition of the global footballing showpiece kicked off at Mexico City’s iconic Estadio Azteca.

Julian Quinones scored the opening goal of the tournament, and veteran striker Raul Jimenez added a second as the co-hosts’ bid for qualification from Group A got off to a smooth start.

South Africa, meanwhile, never looked like they were spoiling the opening day fiesta, and finished with only nine men after Sphephelo Sithole and Themba Zwane were sent off.

The Mexican-colored red, green and white smoke from pre-game fireworks had barely dissipated before Quinones fired the hosts into the lead on nine minutes, drilling a low shot through the legs of South Africa’s goalkeeper and captain Ronwen Williams.

A deafening roar cascaded down from the stands of the Azteca, the footballing cathedral that became the only stadium to host games at three different World Cups.

South Africa coach Hugo Broos had warned his players to be ready for the intimidating atmosphere created by a capacity crowd of 80,824 at the imposing concrete arena.

But South Africa’s players looked to have a bad case of stage fright as Mexico’s fans greeted each completed pass with a raucous chorus of “Ole!” in the opening minutes.

Sithole seemed particularly affected, being caught in possession trying to play out of the back for Quinones’ opening goal. His miserable afternoon ended with a 49th-minute dismissal after bundling over Mexico’s Brian Gutierrez when clean through on goal.

Mexico rammed home their advantage in the 67th minute, with a fine counterattack culminating in Roberto Alvarado crossing for Wolverhampton Wanderers forward Jimenez to nod home at the far post.

It got worse for South Africa in the 84th minute when Zwane was dismissed after a VAR review for flinging an arm into the face of Alvarado.

There was still time for late drama when Mexican defender Cesar Montes was shown a red card for a clumsy challenge on Khulisa Mudau on the edge of the penalty area.

The 48-team tournament is also being hosted by the United States and Canada and will feature 104 games, culminating in the final in New Jersey on July 19.

Shakira and Burna Boy warm up spectators at opening ceremony

Colombian pop icon Shakira and Nigerian singer Burna Boy had the spectators out of their seats in the opening ceremony for the World Cup ahead of the opening clash.

Dancers twirled around a giant model of the World Cup trophy while fireworks went off in the historic stadium, which hosted the 1970 and 1986 World Cup finals and has been renovated for this year’s tournament.

In the highlight of the ceremony, Shakira and Burna Boy performed ‘Dai Dai’, the official song of the tournament, bringing roars from the crowd.

J Balvin and Italian tenor Andrea Bocelli were among the other performers before kickoff as the noise levels ramped up.

“It’s already a party in Mexico,” Ingrid Orozco, a 40-year-old supporter, told AFP.

“It’s amazing,” said Gustavo Ramrez, 19.

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Hours before the World Cup kickoff, the boost to travel and tourism expected from this year’s biggest sporting event has yet to materialise.

For years, the tournament was expected to deliver a windfall for America’s travel industry, now grappling with declining international visitors amid what rights groups describe as a climate of fear.

The swarms of fans that hotels had counted on have yet to arrive, forcing many to cut rates. Flight bookings have slumped as ticket prices have skyrocketed. Expensive match tickets have further stymied demand, and industry analysts say excitement has been muted compared with past World Cups.

The weak start suggests the traditional World Cup travel playbook — typically dependent on international fans willing to travel long distances and spend heavily to follow their teams — is faltering. Instead, the costs, visa hurdles and the logistics of attending matches across 16 host cities in three countries have proved a deterrent.

US travellers, in a country where football is less popular than in Europe, are not filling the gap.

It is “overall a disappointment. There’s no other word that I can say,” said Vijay Dandapani, CEO of the Hotel Association of New York City. The association has cut its forecast for hotel room revenue tied to the World Cup by 60 per cent to roughly $60 million, he said.

The International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Last-minute demand yet to materialise

Flight bookings from Europe into most host cities for June and July are down 3.8pc on average year-over-year, according to Cirium, even after Europeans had already pulled back from travel to the US last year. Bookings from Europe into New York, host of the July 19 final, have plunged 15.8pc, Cirium said.

FIFA had projected 1.2 million fans would descend on the city, but Dandapani said the New York hotel association is only expecting half a million.

Dandapani said there has been a small uptick in bookings from UK and Norway fans recently, which he called a “positive sign.”

Hotels are hoping for a last-minute surge after the group stage concludes, despite discouraging early data. Average bookings across host cities are up just 0.5pc from a year earlier, according to analytics firm CoStar. Several New York hotels are discounting hotel rooms, said Dandapani, including the New York Hilton Midtown, the city’s largest hotel, which has slashed rates for the tournament in half to $415 per night, compared to advertised rates in December, he said.

Hilton in April said it was seeing strong bookings, driven by New York. The following month, Marriott said, “There obviously is still a lot left to book given that the exact matchups for the latter half of the competition have not yet been decided.”

Hilton declined to comment, while Marriott did not immediately respond to a comment request.

“Some fans are skipping the World Cup altogether,” said Andy Milne, England superfan and author of the book That World Cup Guy.

“Friends of mine are heading to Ibiza to watch every match on TV for a fraction of the price. Others are going to Vegas. It’ll still cost money, but far less than tickets, travel, hotels and transport to the stadiums.”

Even affluent fans, who have buoyed the performance of US travel companies, are waiting for matchups to crystallise or for their teams to advance before committing to travel, luxury sports travel company Roadtrips said.

High ticket costs, visas deter visitors

Fans from more than half the qualified countries need visas to enter the United States, adding cost and uncertainty for travellers already wary of stricter border enforcement.

The Trump administration denied a Somali referee entry over alleged links to “suspected members of terror organisations.”

FIFA’s ticketing practices have also soured some fans. Organisers introduced record-high base prices and, for the first time, dynamic pricing that raised costs as the tournament neared.

FIFA’s decision to allow uncapped resale pricing inflated costs further and drew regulatory scrutiny. The cheapest ticket in host cities like New York and Miami now approaches $1,000, according to TicketData.

Even if ticket prices halve closer to key matches, last-minute demand may remain muted, as overseas fans still face the cost and complexity of booking travel and securing visas on short notice, said Dana Lattouf, CEO of Tickitto, a UK ticket distributor.

Vacation rentals, which allow groups to split costs, are a rare bright spot.

Airbnb told investors in May that the World Cup was on track to be its largest event ever. Data from short-term rental analytics firm AirDNA shows bookings, particularly for budget and economy rentals, are tracking higher in host cities, including Boston and Los Angeles.

Booked average daily rates for rentals across host cities were $218, while travellers looking now would pay about $335 as of June 8, AirDNA said, as hosts raise prices to capture last-minute demand.

There is way more leisure demand in all these cities because of the World Cup. That is unmistakable, said Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA.

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THE budget is a tug-of-war between different interest groups. On one hand, there is explicit lobbying by various business groups and industry bodies that commission reports, hold events and engage policymakers.

These organisations, explains Dr Ali Hasanain, associate professor of economics at Lums, also meet political party leaders and bureaucrats in both formal and private settings to communicate their concerns and policy preferences.

This is broadly in line with how businesses operate globally. For ex­­ample, US President Donald Tru­­mp’s top backer in the last ele­ction was investor Timothy Mel­l­­on, who gave $150 million to Make America Great Again, Inc., follow­­ed by Elon Musk, who gave $118.6m.

But while lobbying and formal influence exist everywhere, the distribution of power is far less orderly in Pakistan. No single player is all-powerful, though wealth is concentrated in relatively few hands. Instead, policy becomes outcome of fragmented pressure from multiple directions.

The big boss may be IMF, but Pakistan remains a sovereign nation, not a subject of the Fund

In Pakistan’s case, this fragmentation is further constrained by an external anchor: the IMF. Under successive programmes, Pakistan is required to meet a long list of targets. Yet within those constraints, governments tend to follow the path of least resistance, typically raising taxes on those already in the tax net rather than expanding it. This tendency is reinforced by a deeper structural weakness: the lack of strong feasibility studies for projects. Plans are often undertaken without adequately accounting for inefficiencies, bureaucratic incompetence, weak political leadership and changing political equations, he says.

‘Noise’ from lobbies

On the one hand, there are concentrated lobbies; on the other, there is the politics of visibility, the ‘noise makers’.

Take retailers and wholesalers, for instance. They remain among the country’s most undertaxed sectors and have repeatedly been identified by the IMF as areas requiring reform. Yet, even the latest small trader scheme is less a tax reform than a negotiated settlement.

“Combined together, they can make a lot more noise than your typical person” and therefore can remain broadly outside the tax net, points out Ammar Habib Khan, assistant professor of practice at IBA, Karachi.

He cites solar net metering as another classic example of the power of noise. “There are only about 400,000 net-metering users, but they can make so much noise that the government finds it difficult to make a reasonable decision,” he says.

“Globally, the transition from net metering to net billing is fairly standard. However, policymakers struggle to make that decision because many of the people affected are wealthy, influential and belong to powerful families.”

This creates a second-order distortion in the process: not just who has formal access to power, but who can raise the political cost of change.

The IMF influence equation

Pakistan’s role on the global chessboard is defined by more than just its GDP.

The nuclear-armed state shares borders with Afghanistan, India, Iran and China while also close to Russia and key Gulf chokepoints. It is one the most densely populated countries, and an important part of the Muslim world.

The United States is the largest single member of the IMF, with the highest financial contribution and voting power. The Fund has a lending capacity of roughly $1 trillion. By comparison, what the US economy produces in about a week — roughly $570 billion — exceeds Pakistan’s annual GDP of approximately $452bn.

Against that backdrop, a $7bn IMF programme, staggered over three years and repayable with interest, is small in financial terms but significant in terms of influence. It is a low-cost, high-leverage exposure to a strategically important state.

The big boss may be the IMF, but Pakistan remains a sovereign nation, not a subject of the Fund. As a lender of last resort, the IMF steps in when a country faces a severe financial crisis.

“When the lender comes to collect, whether you pay it off by selling your wife’s jewellery, dipping into your savings, or using your son’s tuition fund is up to you. The lender’s job is to collect,” Dr Hasnain explains, arguing that while the goals may belong to IMF, the mechanisms belong to Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, June 11th, 2026

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WASHINGTON: Rising inflation and persistent energy price pressures have sharpened political divisions in Washington, with Democrats blaming President Donald Trump’s Iran policy and trade agenda for worsening economic conditions for American households.

The latest figures showing inflation at 4.2 per cent in May, compared with wage growth of 3.4pc over the same period, have revived concerns that real incomes are being eroded as the cost of living continues to rise.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer criticised the administration’s handling of the economy and foreign policy in a sharply worded social media post.

“Another month of Trump’s illegal Iran war, another month of Trump’s tariffs, another month of Republican control of Congress. The result? A new all-time high for Trumpflation,” he wrote.

He also highlighted remarks by economist Heather Long of Navy Federal Credit Union, who warned that inflation was outpacing wages.

“Inflation is so high that it’s erasing all wage gains,” she said. “Inflation: 4.2pc in May for the past year. Wage growth: 3.4pc in May for the past year. Americans are getting squeezed financially.”

Senator Jeanne Shaheen, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees, accused President Trump of breaking key campaign promises on war and the economy.

“President Trump promised no new wars. He promised to lower your energy costs and tame inflation,” she said.

“Instead, he started a reckless war with Iran. He’s spiked gas prices. And inflation has soared month after month. He lied, and it’s the American people who are paying the price.”

In the House of Representatives, Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries described the conflict as a “reckless war of choice,” calling it “Day 100 of the reckless war of choice in Iran” and urging congressional action.

“It’s time for the Republican-controlled Senate to move our war powers resolution,” he said. “So we can end this costly conflict immediately.”

Analysts say the transmission channel between the conflict and US inflation runs primarily through global energy markets, where disruptions in supply expectations can quickly feed into higher fuel costs for American consumers.

Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council warned that energy markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical instability. “The energy market is global, and disruptions to supply anywhere result in price spikes in the United States,” he said.

Former US intelligence official Beth Sanner warned that widening regional instability involving Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria risked complicating diplomatic efforts and sustaining long-term uncertainty across the Middle East.

Beyond the United States, economists note that prolonged instability in global energy markets also carries indirect consequences for import-dependent economies such as Pakistan.

Higher oil prices tend to feed into transport costs, food inflation and external account pressures, making emerging markets particularly vulnerable to sustained volatility.

As the conflict continues, the debate in Washington is increasingly defined by inflation data, household financial stress and questions over the scope of US military engagement abroad.

While policymakers focus on domestic economic pain, analysts warn that geopolitical shocks are reinforcing inflationary pressures that extend well beyond the United States.

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