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AS the staggered polls for the AJK Legislative Assembly enter their final stretch, it appears that the PML-N is in a commanding position, and is already working on a governance plan for the region.

Marred by violence as well as allegations of rigging by the PPP — the PML-N’s coalition partner at the centre — these polls have not been without controversy. Re-polling will be held at some polling stations in Bagh over the weekend, while votes will be cast in seven constituencies of Poonch division on Aug 20 or Aug 21. Polling was postponed in these constituencies due to the volatile law and order situation.

The AJK polls have exposed a widening gap between the PML-N and PPP, with the latter claiming that the AJK Election Commission had not ensured transparent polling. PML-N leaders, however, have downplayed these concerns, saying that their party head Nawaz Sharif will choose the next AJK prime minister. While the PML-N’s lead looks unassailable at this point, as we have stated before, government formation should only commence when polling has concluded in all constituencies. Furthermore, the election commission should thoroughly investigate all claims of electoral irregularities, as a controversial voting exercise will cast a long shadow over the next administration, putting its legitimacy into question.

While it is important for elections to be held even in the most difficult of circumstances, unless the polls are seen to be free and fair, the underlying problems fuelling public disaffection will become more severe. AJK has seen anti-government protests off and on for the past three years. Led by the now banned Joint Awami Action Committee, the protests picked up momentum in June this year.

There is no doubt that the violence associated with these protests and the incendiary rhetoric of some JAAC leaders are indefensible. But the protest movement itself cannot be brushed aside. True, some of the JAAC’s demands, such as the removal of refugee seats, concern constitutional matters, which cannot be settled through street power; these issues must be decided within the AJK legislature. But at the root of the protests of the last few years is a demand for good governance.

Unless elections are seen to be fair, and the next administration tries to resolve the protesters’ legitimate demands, political unrest in AJK is likely to continue, despite polls being held there. PML-N leaders have said the protesters’ “valid demands” will be addressed. Considering the sensitivity of the region, the electoral process must be marked by transparency so that there is general acceptance of the outcome. If the PML-N does take up the reins in Muzaffarabad, it must reach out to the PPP and other political players in the region, as well as peaceful protesters, to address all concerns in a democratic fashion.

Published in Dawn, August 13th, 2026

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MUZAFFARABAD: A controversy emerged on Wednesday after the returning officer (RO) issued Form 27 declaring PPP’s Faisal Mumtaz Rathore, the sitting AJK prime minister, the winner from LA-17 (Haveli), despite rival PML-N candidate Engineer Mohsin Aziz being assured that the form would not be issued until the Election Commission took up his complaint.

The development triggered fresh tensions in Haveli district, where PML-N workers announced a complete shutter-down strike and protest from Thursday (August 13) for an indefinite period.

At a meeting in Forward Kahuta, chaired by PML-N Haveli president Syed Abid Bukhari, participants demanded that the Election Commission open all polling bags from LA-17, order a recount and determine the result on the basis of the original results issued by presiding officers at the polling stations.

They warned that the scope of the protest would be expanded if the demand was not accepted.

Polling in the constituency had been held on Monday amid serious allegations and counter-allegations of rigging by all three major contestants — PM Rathore of PPP, PML-N’s Aziz and independent candidate Khawaja Tariq Saeed.

Late on Monday evening, thousands of Aziz’s supporters gathered at the district courts, claiming that the results provided to polling agents by presiding officers on Form 24 showed their candidate leading Rathore by more than 8,000 votes, but that the RO was subsequently preparing the result in favour of the prime minister.

There were also reports of some people being injured during the demonstration.

The protest ended on Tuesday after Aziz said in a video message that the RO had given him a written undertaking that Form 27 would not be issued until the Election Commission in Muzaffarabad decided his claim.

On Tuesday, Chief Election Commissioner Justice (retd) Ghulam Mustafa Mughal had told Dawn that the Commission would take a decision after the polling bags and relevant election records reached its office. He had reportedly given a similar assurance to Aziz over the phone.

The DRO, Waheed Mughal, and RO, Asheer Chughtai, both members of the subordinate judiciary, were evacuated from their offices in Forward Kahuta along with the polling bags with the help of the army’s Quick Response Force (QRF). They reached Muzaffarabad by midnight.

However, the RO subsequently issued Form 27 after midnight, dated August 11, declaring Rathore the winner with 33,872 votes. Aziz secured 32,354 votes, followed by Saeed with 12,538 and IPP candidate Amir Nazir Chaudhry with 5,405.

Hours later, PM Rathore said on X that his “remarkable victory had been officially notified”.

“LA-17 has spoken. I thank the people of Haveli and again pledge to serve them now and forever. I’m grateful to my party leadership, specially, Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Adi Faryal Talpur, for their trust, guidance and unending support amid every challenge we have faced,” he wrote.

The issuance of Form 27, however, failed to settle the dispute, with reports from Haveli suggesting that tensions were rising again.

In a video message recorded in Muzaffarabad, Aziz reiterated his allegation that the Form 24s handed to polling agents of all nine participating candidates contained the genuine results, while different figures were subsequently taken into consideration by the RO.

He offered to have just two polling bags, rather than all of them, opened from areas where he alleged the results had been changed. If his allegation proved to be wrong, he said, he would apologise and congratulate Rathore.

“If Faisal Rathore has won, why is he afraid of opening of polling bags and a subsequent recount?” he asked.

Aziz also claimed that the Election Act, 2020, made it obligatory for the RO to open polling bags following a complaint by any candidate. He said that when they asked Chughtai to take the step, the RO maintained that he was unaware of the provision and did not have a copy of the Act with him.

On Wednesday, senior lawyers Raja Sajjad Ahmed and Chaudhry Ghulam Nabi submitted an application to the chief election commissioner, seeking a recount of votes polled in LA-17 over alleged tampering with the results.

The Election Commission announced that it would take up the matter at 10am on Thursday.

In a post on X, PML-N leader and federal Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Tariq Fazal Chaudhry called for a transparent investigation into the rigging complaint filed by Aziz, saying he hoped the Election Commission would address the allegations regarding the Haveli constituency on merit.

Aziz, however, said he had little hope from the commission after what he described as its failure to prevent the issuance of the “unlawful Form 27”.

“I will take my case to the people’s court apart from the superior judiciary,” he said.

Meanwhile, Saeed also alleged tampering with his results and called for a recount. He claimed that he had won at nine polling stations, but the votes secured by him there had not been included in his tally and had instead been added to that of Rathore.

PPP calls polls ‘rigged and violent’

Against this backdrop, the PPP also criticised the conduct of the AJK elections, with a high-level meeting of the party in Islamabad describing the polls as “rigged and violent” and expressing serious concern over the role of the AJK Election Commission.

The meeting, chaired by PPP Women’s Wing president and AJK affairs in-charge Faryal Talpur, also criticised the phase-wise conduct of the elections and demanded the immediate completion of polling in the remaining two districts of the third phase and seven constituencies of Poonch so that the Legislative Assembly could be fully constituted.

The participants raised questions over the suspension of internet services, shortages of polling material and staff at some polling stations, and alleged inadequate security arrangements.

Talpur said the PPP was the representative party of the people of AJK and had continued to enjoy strong public support despite challenging circumstances.

On the other hand, Tariq Fazal Chaudhry said the PML-N had secured a clear lead in the elections and would have 24 general seats, with another six reserved seats, taking its strength to 30.

In his post on X, he said the AJK Assembly session would be convened next week for the swearing-in of members and election of reserved seats, followed by elections for the speaker and prime minister.

Chaudhry described the elections as free, fair and credible, saying there had been “zero tolerance” for misconduct or rigging. He cited the arrest of a candidate in LA-6 (Mirpur) for taking away a ballot box from a polling station as an example of action against electoral misconduct.

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OVER the past few days, Pakistan has been going the extra mile to assure Iran that the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement it signed last week with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye poses no threat to Tehran.

In a recent telephone call, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi that the pact is “not an instrument of confrontation”. Moreover, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told the cabinet that the agreement is “entirely for defence purposes”.

Tehran seems to have understood the messaging, as the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said his country had no reason to believe the pact was aimed at encircling it, and that it showed that countries of the region could not depend on the American security umbrella.

Perhaps the reason for speculation surrounding the deal was the mutual defence component, which says that an attack on one signatory is an attack on all. Considering the targeting of US military assets in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states by Iran during the active phase of hostilities with America, observers have debated whether the signatories of the deal could step in militarily. However, the clarifications regarding Iran are welcome. In fact, what is needed is a new regional security architecture that binds the Arabs, Iranians and other states together.

Achieving this would be difficult, considering the pro-America stance of the GCC states. However, the American military footprint in the Gulf and larger Middle East may eventually shrink, which means that regional states will have to eventually work out a security framework amongst themselves. The Makkah pact could provide a blueprint for such defence cooperation. The Turkish president has already said that the pact is open to other countries.

If Iran were to be brought on board, it could significantly alter the regional security landscape. For this to happen, the existing high levels of mistrust between the Arabs, particularly Saudi Arabia, and the Iranians, would need to be reduced. But states such as Pakistan and Turkiye, which maintain cordial ties with both sides, can attempt to bridge the gap. As a CBM, Iran should open up the Strait of Hormuz, as its continued closure is battering Gulf economies. The Arab states should also pledge to disallow outsiders from staging aggression against Iran from their soil.

Instead of depending on extra-regional powers, the states of the Gulf and Middle East must themselves create a new security architecture. Not only would this reduce the tensions that exist between them, it could also serve as an expanded defence pact to deter Israel from attacking regional states. Tel Aviv has attacked Iran and its allies, as well as pro-America states like Qatar, hence an effective regional defensive bloc could make Israel think twice about its violent adventurism.

Published in Dawn, August 12th, 2026

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After more than five months of conflict, oil markets continue to surge and tumble over the latest developments in the US-Iran clash, including United States President Donald Trump’s shifting pronouncements.

What is behind the market’s volatility?

The ‘shock’ of Hormuz

While the potential vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz has long been viewed as a risk, oil markets have still been caught off guard by Iran’s ability to largely close the crucial waterway.

“What really shakes the market are surprises… and the Hormuz closure was a shock,” said Jim Burkhard, head of global energy crude oil research at S&P Global.

Brent oil prices surged more than 13 per cent in the immediate aftermath of the US-Israeli siege against Iran on February 28. Since that time, prices have been jolted in both directions as the conflict has dragged on.

“Number one, it’s the complete unexpectedness, unfamiliarity with what we are seeing,” Bob McNally, president of the Rapidian Energy Group and a former White House energy advisor to George W. Bush, said of the unprecedented curtailment of the Strait.

“There was this perception that the US would never allow it to happen,” McNally added.

About 20 million barrels per day of crude traverse the Strait, roughly a quarter of global oil demand, making the current supply shock “the biggest disruption in history”, according to McNally.

Subsequent events have jerked prices in both directions. Markets were unnerved by the US move to blockade Iran’s ports, but subsequently buoyed by a June 17 agreement between the United States and Iran to cease hostilities.

An imminent resolution?

While the conflict has boosted prices overall, international benchmark Brent oil has averaged $94 a barrel since the start of the fighting, well below the $150-per-barrel level seen by some experts as possible.

One explanation is the market’s response to Trump, who has issued contradictory statements but has often described a Hormuz resolution as within striking distance. Such statements have helped keep crude prices from rising more.

“The market believes and still believes that this crisis can and will end soon,” McNally said.

Optimistic statements by the president and other Trump administration figures like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have often sent oil prices sharply lower, posing peril to traders on the wrong side.

“The oil market has sort of burned the bulls so many times you just don’t have bulls willing to go in and trade,” McNally said. “So all you have is people who are trading, especially these algorithmic traders who are just trading on headlines.”

The Hormuz closure has lowered volumes by about 12.6m barrels per day, according to JPMorgan Chase analysts.

Some of this has been blunted by lower crude imports from China, while releases from commercial and government inventories have also offset the effects of lost supply.

In March, the International Energy Agency announced member governments would release 400m barrels of oil, the largest emergency stock release in history.

The US, Canada and Brazil have been among the countries increasing output.

Middle East producers have maneuvered some shipments away from the Strait.

For example, Saudi Arabia shifted crude exports to the Red Sea, but that avenue has also been compromised by attacks by Houthi rebels.

Not just oil

While the fluctuations of crude prices generate most of the headlines, analysts have also highlighted the stresses on refined products, including gasoline.

“The most pressure in the world today is on refined products because there is generally enough crude oil out there right now, but there’s not enough refining capacity,” Burkhard said.

Diesel prices have doubled compared with February, while gasoline prices are up about 50pc.

The Middle East conflict has also sidelined key energy infrastructure due to attacks, including some refinery capacity. Energy experts also point to Russian refinery outages due to attacks from Ukraine in that war.

Continued robust demand for petroleum products has led to a historic surge in refinery profit margins, resulting in huge earnings windfalls for large oil companies in the second quarter.

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KARACHI: As Pakistan faces one of the gravest development challenges of our time, DawnMedia is set to host a landmark national conference on malnutrition and stunting.

‘Act for Nutrition’ will be held on Sept 2 and 3 at the Serena Hotel, Islamabad, to shed light on “the emergency we can no longer ignore”, DawnMedia said in a statement.

According to the statement, about 40 per cent of children in Pakistan under the age of five are stunted, while the country has one of the highest child malnutrition numbers in the world.

“Maternal malnutrition, widespread micronutrient deficiencies, food insecurity, poor infant feeding practices, rapid population growth and persistent poverty continue to reinforce a cycle of deprivation that spans generations,” the statement said.

According to recent estimates, Pakistan loses nearly $17 billion annually due to the economic consequences of malnutrition and undernutrition.

Recognising nutrition as fundamentally an economic, governance and developmental challenge, and not solely as a health issue, “Act for Nutrition seeks to elevate malnutrition from a fragmented public health concern to a national development priority”.

The conference will bring together policymakers, development partners, healthcare professionals, economists, academics, civil society organisations, humanitarian agencies, and the private sector for two days of evidence-based dialogue.

Speakers will examine the country’s nutrition landscape through interconnected lenses of poverty, health, education, climate resilience, governance, and human rights.

The principal partners of the conference are the Sindh health ministry, the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and English Biscuit Manufacturers.

The knowledge partners include Globesight, International Research Force, and the Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health Research Network. The organisations bring together expertise to strengthen the dialogue around nutrition and child development in the country.

“Act for Nutrition marks the beginning of a long-term natio­nal movement — one that recognises investing in maternal and child nutrition as among the most powerful investments Pak­i­stan can make in its future prosperity, resilience, and human capital,” the statement said.

Published in Dawn, August 11th, 2026

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The government on Monday kept the prices of petrol and high-speed diesel unchanged as Platts prices were not published on August 10.

Petrol will continue to be sold at Rs327.62 per litre, while HSD will cost Rs380.86 per litre. The government continues to levy Rs114 per litre in taxes and duties on petrol and Rs100 per litre on HSD.

According to the Petroleum Division’s notification, the new prices will be applicable on August 11.

The price of HSD has come down from a peak of Rs520.35 recorded on April 3. Its price had started rising from Rs281 per litre after the US-Iran war broke out on February 28.

The petrol price had peaked at Rs458.41 on April 3 after beginning its upward trajectory from Rs266 in the first week of March.

Earlier, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik announced that fuel prices would now be fixed on a daily basis due to fluctuations in international market prices following renewed hostilities between Iran and the US.

The government had been announcing weekly revisions to fuel prices since early March, alongside measures for the conservation of fuel amid possible oil supply disruptions due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The federal government in April also announced targeted relief measures to provide subsidised fuel.

The petroleum minister stated that the cabinet and the prime minister had decided to give the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) the responsibility of deciding fuel prices on a daily basis based on international market trends.

The daily pricing decision was rejected by the All Pakistan Dealers Association, which said it would consider a protest plan.

Petrol is mainly used in private transport, small vehicles, rickshaws and two-wheelers, and changes in its price affect the middle and lower-middle classes.

Similarly, changes in diesel prices also impact the public at large, as it is mainly used in the heavy transport sector, power plants and large generators.

Petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) are the major revenue earners, with monthly sales of about 700,000 to 800,000 tonnes, compared to just 10,000 tonnes of monthly demand for kerosene.

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Between July and August, things are brought to almost a halt across much of Europe. Italy shuts down for Ferragosto, the French vanish on les grandes vacances, and the German offices empty out. During this window, everything — deadlines, emails, occasional sovereign crisis — can wait.

For Pakistani economy nerds, late summer means something completely different, though no less exciting if you are warped enough. It’s because by this time, the data for fiscal year-end starts being released, giving a complete picture of how things panned out.

Of all the numbers that land in this season, it is banking that appeals to me the most for a multitude of reasons. For starters, it has had quite an enviable run the past few years and remains highly profitable even as other parts of the economy struggle. Second, its data reporting is relatively richer and granular than most other sectors.

Starting with the liabilities side, total deposits reached Rs39.8 trillion by FY26, up 15 per cent over the previous year. That’s a fairly impressive haul considering the size of the industry, where any incremental change requires hundreds of billions of rupees to move the needle.

Loans to SMEs crossed Rs1tr for the first time in FY26, surging by an impressive 37pc over the preceding period

But these are nominal figures and are naturally helped by inflation, which was just north of 11pc in FY26. To see whether the industry has expanded its reach or not, we need a relative measure. Deposits as a percentage of GDP reached 31.4pc by June. While this marks a continuous upward trajectory over the last few years, the ratio still remains slightly short of the preceding decade’s average.

Category-wise breakdown shows non-bank financial institutions to be leading the growth charts, up 48.9pc to Rs2.9tr by FY26. This is part of a recent history of the non-bank financial institutions’ balance sheet expansion, which saves the best of its movements at year ends when banking needs wild swings.

Meanwhile, individuals continue to make up the lion’s share, though their contribution in the overall pie has dwindled over the last few years and now stands at 45.5pc, worth Rs18.1tr. More worryingly, private sector businesses were the major laggard, with a five year compound annual growth rate of 13.3pc against the overall rate of 15.8pc, and have lost 2.2 percentage points in relative share since FY21.

On the asset side, the story is a bit more mixed: total credit to the private sector rose 14.8pc to Rs11.4tr by June, from Rs9.9tr the year before. Of this, businesses understandably comprised the bulk at Rs9.6tr, jumping by 14pc over FY25, while personal financing grew much faster at 25.2pc, albeit over a far smaller base, to cross Rs1.5tr in FY26.

However, loans only play a supporting character in the banking balance sheet, with advances-to-deposits ratio consistently hovering below 40pc since May 2025. The lead role has also been performed by the government, which gets most of the funds, as clear from investments-to-deposits of over 100pc.

Notwithstanding the banality of aggregates, there have been a few important shakeups in the credit ecosystem lately. After years of stagnancy, we are now seeing a revival in loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), crossing Rs1tr for the first time to reach Rs1.046tr by June, surging by an impressive 37pc over the preceding period. This comes out to be 10.66pc of the total private business loans, up 1.8 percentage points over FY25 and marks the highest level in at least 8 years.

While the base effect has helped partially, let’s not downplay the underlying shift. This is not a one-off increase, as SME loans have risen at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17pc, outpacing the 10pc rate seen in the non-SME segment. A closer analysis reveals this to be a story of two halves where non-SME loans were in the driving seat between FY21 and FY23, rising by 11.1pc CAGR, almost 2x as fast as the SME segment. However, the trend reversed over the next three years.

Within the SME book, more than half has consistently gone towards the services sector, clocking in at Rs570bn by FY26. On the other hand, there has been a recomposition among the other two groups, even as the absolute values continue to rise, with agri’s share in the total rising from not even 1pc in FY19 to around 12pc by FY26 – with the amount increasing at a five year CAGR of 62pc to Rs130bn. In relative terms, the industry has lagged behind, up by a much more modest 21pc over the preceding year to end of June at Rs346bn.

Drilling one level further into the subsectoral divisions shows how narrow the book is. Of the 79 subsectors the State Bank of Pakistan reports, only 15 carry an SME book above Rs10bn, and the top three alone — retail trade (Rs178bn), wholesale trade (Rs164bn) and crop and animal production (Rs130bn) — account for 45pc of outstanding credit and 57pc of everything added since FY21.

Though the progress is unmistakable, it needs to be viewed against the broader policy targets. In the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS) 2024-2028, the State Bank had set a goal of SME loans worth 10pc of the private sector credit by FY28. That number has already been breached, two years before the deadline.

Unfortunately, things are never as simple as progress reports show, and require some historical context. We find exactly that in the previous edition of the NFIS, where the share of SME loans as a proportion of private credit was supposed to reach 17pc by FY23. So when performance fails to catch up, the trick is to shift the goalpost.

The writer is co-founder of Data Darbar and Head of InsightLab at KSBL.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 10th, 2026

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