https://ift.tt/xV7oOKq

WASHINGTON: The United States is entering a period of structurally higher industrial natural gas demand, with consumption expected to remain at record levels through at least 2027, even as the Iran war intensifies disruptions across global oil markets and tightens energy supplies worldwide.

According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), industrial natural gas consumption in the United States averaged a record 23.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025, exceeding the previous high of 23.4bcfd recorded in 2023.

The projections suggest that rising industrial demand is no longer merely cyclical, but increasingly tied to deeper structural shifts in manufacturing, energy trade flows and global supply-chain realignment.

The EIA expects industrial gas consumption to rise by another 1.2 per cent, or 0.3bcfd, in 2026, followed by an additional 1.7pc increase, or 0.4bcfd, in 2027.

At the centre of the trend is sustained expansion in energy-intensive manufacturing sectors, including petrochemicals, fertilizers, metals processing and export-oriented industrial production. These industries continue to benefit from the United States’ relative energy cost advantage compared with Europe and parts of Asia, where fuel prices remain significantly higher.

However, the pace of growth is being moderated by ongoing efficiency improvements across industrial operations.

“Continued efficiency improvements reduce the amount of natural gas needed per unit of output,” the EIA noted, indicating that overall demand growth would likely have been substantially higher without technological gains in industrial energy use.

Iran war intensifies pressure on global oil markets

The revised US energy outlook comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where the Iran war has evolved into one of the most significant threats to global energy security in recent years.

The EIA this week sharply revised its assumptions for global oil supply disruptions, warning that interruptions to Middle Eastern exports are likely to be both deeper and more prolonged than previously anticipated.

Central to the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most strategically important oil transit chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of globally traded crude oil normally passes.

The agency now assumes the strait will remain effectively closed through the end of May, extending earlier expectations that disruptions would ease by April.

That revision significantly alters the global supply outlook.

According to the EIA, approximately 10.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil production was shut in across the Middle East in April. The agency now expects disruptions to rise further to 10.8mbpd this month as regional storage facilities approach capacity limits.

The latest figures also reflect expectations that Iran will face additional export constraints as the US blockade continues to disrupt shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Notably, the updated estimates are substantially higher than the EIA’s earlier forecast, which projected peak supply losses of 9.1mbpd in April.

Inventory drawdowns signal sustained tightness

The widening supply deficit is expected to accelerate the depletion of global oil inventories, reinforcing expectations that energy markets could remain tight well beyond the immediate geopolitical crisis.

The EIA now forecasts global oil stockpiles will decline by 2.6mbpd this year — a dramatic upward revision from its earlier estimate of roughly 300,000 bpd.

Such a rapid inventory drawdown suggests the market is increasingly relying on stored crude to offset supply shortages, a dynamic that historically amplifies price volatility and raises the risk of sustained inflationary pressure.

The tightening global market is already feeding directly into the US energy system.

According to the EIA, inventories of crude oil, gasoline and distillates in the United States have all fallen sharply as domestic producers increase exports to compensate for supply shortages abroad.

Distillate inventories — including diesel and heating oil — recently fell to their lowest levels since 2005, highlighting the strain on refined fuel markets.

Although US refineries are operating at elevated utilisation rates, domestic fuel supplies remain constrained because of exceptionally strong overseas demand for refined petroleum products.

During the week ending May 1, US petroleum product exports reached 8.2mbpd, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. That figure was more than 1.5mbpd higher than the same period last year.

US emerges as shock absorber for global energy markets

The data increasingly point to the United States functioning as the primary stabilising supplier in global energy markets.

As disruptions in the Gulf region remove crude supplies from international markets, global consumers are relying more heavily on US crude exports, refined fuels and liquefied natural gas.

That dynamic is strengthening revenues and export opportunities for American energy producers, particularly natural gas suppliers and refiners. However, it is also creating domestic economic trade-offs.

Higher export volumes are tightening US fuel availability and contributing to rising gasoline and diesel prices for American consumers, adding to broader inflationary pressures across transportation, manufacturing and household energy costs.

The situation also underscores a growing divergence between the oil and natural gas sectors.

While oil markets remain vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions because of concentrated supply routes in the Middle East, the United States’ large domestic natural gas reserves continue to provide relative supply stability. That advantage is increasingly reinforcing the role of natural gas as both an industrial feedstock and a strategic energy buffer during periods of global oil-market instability.

Analysts say that if instability in the Gulf persists, the global energy system could experience a longer-term reconfiguration of trade flows, with the United States assuming an even larger role in supplying both natural gas and refined fuels to international markets.

In that scenario, elevated energy prices, stronger US export demand and structurally higher industrial gas consumption may become defining features of the global energy landscape over the next several years.

from Dawn - Home https://ift.tt/bM4NsKm

https://ift.tt/alQAXgW

A driver injured seven people, four of them badly, when he drove on a sidewalk in the northern Italian city of Modena on Saturday and then got out possibly holding a knife, the mayor said.

Early eyewitness accounts said the driver, aged in his 30s, apparently “aimed for the sidewalk, hitting a bike, then crashed while slamming head-on into a woman, badly hurt with both legs crushed”, mayor Massimo Mezzetti told local media and the ANSA news agency.

The car then crashed into a shop window.

“He was seen with a knife in his hand, but he didn’t manage to stab anyone.

It seems like he was trying to hit someone,” the mayor said.

Police have arrested the driver and are questioning him, he added.
Mezzetti told RaiNews channel that four of the seven hit had been seriously injured.

One witness told Italian broadcasters the car had arrived at high speed on Emilia Centro street, which is very busy on Saturday afternoons.

“I heard impacts and I saw people getting run over, ” he said.

“The car got to me and I managed to throw myself to the ground,” said the man, whose head was bloodied.

“The driver seemed to be high or drunk, he didn’t seem to be in a normal state. ” He and several other pedestrians chased him down when he tried to run off, disarming him after he produced a knife, he added.

The mayor, Mezzetti, thanked “those citizens who showed courage and civic duty”.

He added: “We need to understand what’s behind this act. But it was a dramatic event.

“I am deeply shaken. Whatever it was, it was extremely serious. If it turns out to be an attack, that would be even more serious,” Mezzetti said.

from Dawn - Home https://ift.tt/LBqro1t

https://ift.tt/98b64Gq

• Decision comes in response to traders’ protests, appeals by shopping malls association and general public
• Lahore Chamber of Commerce welcomes move, describes it as ‘important business-friendly’ step
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa governor, CM resolve to ease restrictions in their province as well

LAHORE: Responding to traders’ protests and appeals by the shopping malls association and general public to revise 8pm business closure timings, the Punjab government has granted partial relief and lifted the restriction on market timings until June 1.

The Punjab Services and General Administration Depa­r­tment’s (S&GAD) Impleme­ntation and Coordination Wing on Friday notified that “all the shops, markets, shopping malls, hotels, restaurants and food outlets are exempted from the prescribed closure timings till June 1, 2026”.

On April 6, the federal government announced that all markets across the country, barring Sindh, would close by 8pm throughout the week as part of energy conservation measures amid a global fuel crisis triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Complying with the federal government’s decision, Punjab announced that all shops, markets, and shopping malls would close at 8pm, while hotels, restaurants, and food outlets would shut at 10pm, including on Saturdays and Sundays.

However, the government had exempted pharmacies, medical stores, medical supply stores, medical laboratories and hospitals from the order of early closure.

Similarly, petrol pumps, CNG stations, as well as tandoors, bakeries and milk/dairy shops were exempt from the closure order.

Even though restaurants and food outlets were required to shut by 10pm, there were no restrictions on takeaway and home delivery services.

While the Punjab government ordered that all marriage halls and wedding functions, including those organised at residences and farmhouses, shall be closed by 10pm, the latest notification did not explain the status of their closure timings.

The decision had drawn a strong reaction from the traders and public alike as they found that 8pm closure timings for markets were highly detrimental.

Considering the ongoing hot weather and the prevalent shopping and dining culture, the traders and public believed that the 8pm and 10pm timings for markets and food outlets, respectively, were too short.

People also contested that those reaching home from their offices by 6pm could not then shop at any market that was closing by 8pm.

Traders and other stakeholders also argued that the government should explain how much energy was being saved through these measures.

The traders had also been complaining about the alleged high-handedness of the Punjab Enforcement and Regulatory Authority (Pera) officials, who were sealing shops that remained open even a minute after 8pm and imposing fines on their owners.

LCCI welcomes relief

Due to the continuous and effective efforts and strong demands of the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Punjab government has taken an “important business-friendly” decision to ease lockdown restrictions and grant exemptions to markets, shopping malls, restaurants, and food outlets, according to a statement issued by the LCCI.

“This decision is being widely welcomed by the business community as a major relief and a positive step towards economic recovery,” it added.

“It is expected to ensure the continuity of commercial activities, protect jobs, and contribute to overall economic stability.”

The statement further noted that the “decision is being seen as a result of continuous dialogue and constructive engagement”, during which the LCCI “highlighted the real challenges faced by businesses and proposed workable solutions”.

On this occasion, the LCCI president appreciated the Punjab government for this step, the statement said.

He further said restrictions on business hours and lockdown measures directly affected the economy, as they not only impacted businesses but also placed millions of jobs at risk.

“In this context, the decision of the Punjab government is a responsible and pro-economy move,” the statement quoted him as saying.

Easing curbs in KP

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Faisal Karim Kundi and Chief Minister Sohail Afridi on Friday agreed to ease lockdown restrictions in the province to facilitate the public and support economic activities.

During a telephonic conversation, Mr Kundi proposed lifting lockdown restrictions along the lines of Punjab and suggested exempting shops, markets, shopping malls, and restaurants from the restrictions.

The chief minister agreed with the proposal and both leaders discussed measures aimed at balancing public convenience with economic stability.

Governor Kundi said the relaxation in business hours for shops, markets, and shopping malls would help reduce the financial losses being faced by the trader community.

Both leaders agreed to adopt a joint strategy to promote economic activities and ensure maximum public facilitation.

With input from APP

Published in Dawn, May 16th, 2026

from Dawn - Home https://ift.tt/fRey8Wx

https://ift.tt/8jSbFMp

The federal government on Friday reduced petrol and diesel prices by Rs5, according to a notification issued by the Petroleum Division.

According to the notification, the revised prices will take effect from May 16.

Following the decrease, the price of petrol stands at Rs409.78 per litre and that of HSD at Rs409.58.

Petrol is mostly used in private transport, small vehicles, rickshaws and two-wheelers and has a direct bearing on the budget of the middle and lower-middle class. High-speed diesel is mainly used in the heavy transport sector and for large generators.

The government has been revising petroleum prices every week on Friday night following the now-paused US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28. The war also led to a global fuel crunch caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s supply of oil and gas used to pass in peacetime.

Last week, the government approved a hike of Rs14.92 per litre in petrol and Rs15 on HSD prices.

After the US-Israeli war on Iran began, the government initially hiked petrol and diesel prices by Rs55 per litre on March 6 and announced unprecedented austerity measures on March 9.

In the following weeks, PM Shehbaz said he had rejected recommendations to increase fuel prices despite an increase in the global market on three occasions.

But on April 2, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik and Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced an unprecedented increase of 43 per cent and 55pc in the prices of petrol and high-speed diesel, respectively. The ministers had also announced a targeted fuel subsidy programme.

However, just a day later, PM Shehbaz slashed the petroleum levy by Rs80 per litre and brought the price of petrol down to Rs378 per litre.

On April 10, PM Shehbaz further decreased diesel prices and petrol prices by Rs135 and Rs12 per litre, respectively.

from Dawn - Home https://ift.tt/VEoLfJn

https://ift.tt/6bJhBSG

PAKISTAN’S latest GDP figures offer a picture of modest recovery. A projected growth rate of 3.7pc for the current fiscal falls short of the government’s original 4pc target. This is slightly less than even the lower bound of the State Bank’s projected range of 3.75-4.75pc. But it is still an improvement over the previous year’s 3.18pc expansion. Thankfully, the SBP anticipates growth, albeit tepid, during much of next year in case energy prices stay elevated and the Gulf crisis lingers.

That said, the numbers show that the economy continues its struggle to break out of the low-growth trap. Structural issues are constraining long-term, faster growth prospects without overheating the economy. In this context, even modest growth is welcome after four years of economic instability, external financing crises and inflationary shocks, and despite oil price hikes triggered by the Gulf conflict.

The economy’s size has increased to over $452bn while per capita income has edged up to $1,901. Large-scale manufacturing has rebounded while services remain the dominant contributor to growth. Agriculture, which employs much of the workforce and supports rural incomes, on the other hand, has underperformed. A growth of 2.89pc is hardly robust for a sector seen as the economy’s backbone.

The composition of growth is also of concern. Much of the industrial rebound has come from a low base after years of contraction. Automobile production rising by over 61pc sounds impressive, but it reflects recovery from previously depressed levels caused by import curbs and supply disruptions. Services-led growth, meanwhile, reflects the continued expansion of consumption and state expenditure rather than a shift towards productivity-driven development.

Pakistan lacks the export-oriented industrial expansion that has driven sustained high growth in other economies. The disconnect between growth and living standards is another concern. Per capita income has increased in dollar terms. But much of the population continues to struggle with a high cost of living, stagnant wages and declining purchasing power. A rise from $1,824 to $1,901 does little to alter the daily realities facing lower-middle-income homes.

The bigger implication is that recovery remains heavily cyclical rather than structural. The economy may have stabilised after avoiding default and restoring IMF-backed discipline, but stabilisation cannot be a substitute for growth. We still face low investment, weak exports, poor tax mobilisation and human capital deficits. What these numbers show is that while Pakistan now has some breathing space, a durable growth path is still not in sight.

A 3.7pc growth rate may be enough to signal recovery, but is insufficient for a country with Pakistan’s development needs. Without sustained reforms in productivity, education, energy, exports and governance, modest recoveries will continue to alternate with crises. The challenge is not merely to increase growth figures, but to change the quality of growth too.

Published in Dawn, May 15th, 2026

from Dawn - Home https://ift.tt/08fyvbW

https://ift.tt/Tj6yaD5

ISLAMABAD: The government on Thursday said that IMF-mandated asset declarations of civil servants would be made publicly accessible in a redacted form to ensure both transparency and personal privacy.

The declaration of government officials’ assets is required under IMF governance and corruption-related benchmarks.

Establishment Division Secretary Nabeel Awan testified before the Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Revenue, which ordered full investigations into two major scams involving the disappearance of over 400 kilogrammes of silver and a major portion of 2,000 bags of skimmed milk from the custody of Pakistan Customs.

The meeting of the senate panel, chaired by Senator Saleem Mandviwalla, took up the status of asset declarations by government servants, and Awan reported that the government had revised the Civil Servants Conduct Rules and was in the process of digitising the asset declaration system through the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) platform.

He said, “Declarations would be publicly accessible in a redacted form to ensure transparency while safeguarding personal privacy,” adding that the objectives of asset declarations and income tax returns were distinct in nature and governed under separate legal frameworks.

Mandviwalla appreciated the initiative and directed that the revised conduct rules be shared with the committee for detailed review and possible refinement.

He also suggested exploring amendments to the Election Act for parliamentarians regarding the submission of asset declarations to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).

The committee also deliberated on the case of missing silver during transportation after its confiscation by Customs authorities.

It was reported that approximately 698kg of silver had been confiscated in various cases in Balochistan. However, during transport, it was found that the consignment allegedly contained only 298kg of silver, while the remaining 400kg consisted of lead.

Customs officials informed the committee that the matter appeared prima facie to be an insider job and that an inquiry had already been initiated by the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA).

Mandviwalla directed the FBR to ensure recovery of the missing silver, identify those involved and submit a comprehensive report. The matter was also referred to the interior sub-committee for further investigation.

‎The committee also considered the ‘Pakistan Sovereign Wealth Fund (Amendment) Bill, 2026’. Mandviwalla questioned the timing and broader implications of the proposed amendments amid the ongoing budget exercise for the upcoming financial year.

Officials said the amendments were intended to improve governance, operational efficiency and the management of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and were not directly linked to the federal budget process.

Committee members, however, expressed concerns over delays in development funding and cautioned that the proposed amendments should not adversely impact SOEs.

The amendments also proposed mandatory briefings to parliamentary standing committees on SOE performance.

The matter was deferred for further debate, and the ministry was asked to submit a clause-by-clause rationale for each proposed amendment before the next meeting.

In November 2025, the government agreed to the publication of asset declarations of high-level public officials in 2026 and their risk-based verification to improve the country’s accountability and integrity standards against widespread corruption..

According to IMF’s Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment (GCDA), released by the Ministry of Finance as a structural benchmark of the ongoing $7 billion loan programme, the two sides agreed under a short-term action plan to “strengthen accountability and integrity among high-level federal civil servants by initiating the publication of asset declarations in 2026, and introduce risk-based verification of asset declarations”.

from Dawn - Home https://ift.tt/4iywdnD

https://ift.tt/1GjUod3

ISLAMABAD: Muhammad Liaqat, a railway employee who thwarted a suicide attack in Attock, was among several Pakistani nationals and foreigners who were conferred civil awards by President Asif Ali Zardari on Wednesday in recognition of their outstanding services in various fields.

President Zardari posthumously awarded the Sitara-i-Shujaat to Liaquat for his extraordinary bravery and sacrifice, following the recommendations from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Punjab Governor Sardar Saleem Haider. The civil gallantry award was received by the deceased’s mother.

Liaqat embraced martyrdom after courageously intercepting a suicide attacker near the Mankoor check post in the Jand tehsil of Attock district, preventing what officials described as a major tragedy and saving numerous lives.

The investiture ceremony was held at Aiwan-i-Sadr, where various personalities were conferred with civil awards in recognition of their services in health, education, literature, journalism, public service, research, diplomatic affairs, sports and the economy.

President Zardari confers civil awards on prominent Pakistani and foreign nationals

The ceremony was attended by First Lady Aseefa Bhutto-Zardari, federal ministers, the Senate chairman, parliamentarians, members of civil society, diplomats, media representatives and a large number of guests.

Nishan-i-Imtiaz (posthumous) was conferred upon late Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan, and late Irfanul Haq Siddiqui in recognition of their outstanding services to the country.

The recipients of Nishan-i-Imtiaz and Hilal-i-Imtiaz included Attaul Haq Qasmi, Shahid Khan Afridi, Sardar Awais Ahmed Khan Leghari, Muhammad Ali, Asghar Nadeem Syed, Senator Taj Haider (posthumous), Moazzam Jah Ansari, Engineer Jamaluddin Ahmed, Mirza Rizwan Baig, Muhammad Yousuf Khan, Dr Ameer Muhammad, Professor Dr Ikram ul Haq, Zahra Majid Ali, Shehroz Kashif, Malik Ata Muhammad Khan (posthumous), Ehtesham ul Haq, Azeezuddin, Bahraini diplomat Mohammad Ebrahim and Mohammad Abdul Qadir.

The recipients of Sitara-i-Shujaat (posthumous) are: Javedullah Khan Mehsood, Nawab Ali, Senator Hidayatullah, ASI Muhammad Akram, SI Taj Meer Shah, Constable Abdullah, Constable Samand Khan, Constable Zameel Badshah, Abdul Hameed, Constable Muhammad Siraj, Constable Muhammad Javed, Hafeezullah, Inspector Shariq Rizwan, Jawad Qamar, Naek Gulzar Ali, Sepoy Uzair Khan, Sepoy Khatab ul Rehman, Sepoy Gul Umarzai, Sepoy Abdul Sameed, Sepoy Imran Khan, Naib Subedar Muhammad Jan, Lance Naek Syedur Rehman, Sepoy Hazratullah, Sepoy Khunzada, Sepoy Mushtaq Ahmed, Sepoy Baseerullah, Sepoy Mehtabur Rehman, Sepoy Sher Rehman, Sepoy Fazal Kareem and Sepoy Syed Amin, Sepoy Muhammad Yousaf, Constable Muhammad Shehryar, Faisal Ismail, Abdul Wakeel, Fazal Manan, ASI Noor Hakeem, Constable Zahidullah and Liaqat Ali.

The recipients of Hilal-i-Shujaat (posthumous) included Shah Wali Khan, ASI Muhammad Ejaz Khan, SI Laiq Zada, Constable Alam Zeb, Constable Muhammad Ejaz, Waseem Ahmed Khan and Sepoy Azhar Mehmood.

The personalities who received Sitara-i-Imtiaz included Interior Secretary Muhammad Agha, Dr Muhammad Fakhar-i-Alam, Nabeel Munir, Iftikhar Amjad, Sohail Ashraf, Dr Naseem Faraz, Javed Akbar Riaz, Brigadier Faisal Shaukat Jehangiri, Ahmed Abdul Moeez Khawaja, Irfan Ahsan, Hamza Tabani, Dr Arshad Rehan (US/Pakistani), late Munir Ahmed Chaudhry, Muhammad Yaseen Khan, Arshad Wali Muhammad, Ahmed Raza, Prof Sarwar Muhammad Khawaja, Hamra Abbas, late Justice Syed Deedar Hussain Shah, Nadeem Hussain and Nadeem Mehboob.

Rashid Waheed Khawaja and Zahid Ahmed received Pride of Performance award, while Muhammad Saeed Sheikh received Sitara-i-Khidmat and Shahid Hussain received Tamgha-i-Shujaat.

Those who received Tamgha-i-Imtiaz included Sindh IGP Javaid Akhtar Odhoo, Nadir Shafee Dar, Dr Muhammad Shahbaz Chaudhry, Muhammad Kashif Ashfaq, Ch Amanat Hussain Mahr, Dr Farhat Akhtar Raja, Dr Khurum Hayat Khan, Dr Muhammad Shabi Ahmed, Dr Zeeshan Ali, Syed Zahid Hussain Shah, Raja Suleman Raza, Sajid Abbas, Naveed Anwar Chaudhry, Abdul Waheed Khan, Abdul Wahab Sheikh, Waqasul Hassan, Shazia Sikandar Rana, Mohsin Nawaz, Muhammad Arsalan Zafar, Abdul Muhai Shah, Dr Rao Kamran Ali, Dr Imran Syed, Dr Muhammad Naeem Malik, Nasir Aftab, Prof Dr Fateh Muhammad Marri, Aamir Javed Sheikh, Dr Anam Fatema, Qazi Ali Raza, Chaudhry Awais Afzal, Sahibzada Muhammad Yousuf, Waseem Ahmed, Professor Muhammad Tayyeb, Nadia Jehangir Seth and Ziaul Hassan Lanjar.

Amjad Iqbal in Taxila also contributed to this report

Published in Dawn, May 14th, 2026

from Dawn - Home https://ift.tt/n2xDo7g