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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s climate action plan submitted to the United Nations before COP30 in Brazil lists controversial ‘Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage’ (CCUS) technology as one of the approaches to address climate change and decarbonise in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The climate goals, or the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by all countries, outlining their ambition to decarbonise economies and transition away from fossil fuels.

In their third iteration, Pakistan pledged to ‘phase down’ coal by reducing emissions by 50 per cent, including 33pc funded by international finance, by 2035. For this task, Pakistan “requires $565.7 billion”, the document read.

These climate goals were prepared through a “participatory, open and transparent approach”, according to the government, but they have come under scrutiny for “carbon-intensive steps” and the absence of concrete measures to address the phaseout of fossil fuels – a major driver of climate change.

Islamabad-based think tank Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (Pried), in an analysis, said the “open and transparent” approach did not reflect in the final NDC document.

“As far as acceptance by civil society and academia is concerned, that remains limited to a few non-governmental organisations closely aligned with the government and some academics working in public sector educational institutions,” it said.

The NDCs paid “only lip service to the elimination of fossil fuels in the energy sector” despite mentioning the “coal phase-down”, the Pried study, available on its website, read.

Though the NDCs proudly celebrate the moratorium on imported coal power plants, local coal remains the cornerstone of Pakistan’s energy policy, and untested and costly technologies, such as CCUS, are an attempt to perpetuate the use of fossil fuels, experts said.

CCUS is a “global distraction effort” whose “efficacy is questionable, and its financial rationale is worse”, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

In a similar vein, it has been described as a false solution and a greenwashing measure promoted by fossil fuel companies, evident by the presence of hundreds of lobbyists at the UN climate conferences.

Maria Rehman, climate policy analyst at Islamabad-based Climate and Weather Services, said the CCUS is an engineering solution and comes under carbon dioxide removal (CDR). “It works by capturing carbon from industrial emissions and storing it in the ground, and requires advanced technology for implementation,” she noted.

The World Resources Institute (WRI) said in an article that this technology aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from major sources, such as power plants. Under this process, carbon dioxide is separated from other gases and stored underground or utilised in the production of other materials, such as chemicals and concrete, according to the US-based research institute.

Ammara Aslam, a climate change researcher at Pried, argued that CCUS was featured in the NDCs because the government wanted to “continue using locally sourced coal for power generation in the name of energy security” despite available alternatives in the form of renewables, such as solar and wind power.

Haneea Isaad at the IEEA argued that countries in Southeast Asia, like Japan and Malaysia, were looking at CCUS for prolonging the life of their coal and gas assets.

In the case of Pakistan, it may be “nearly impossible to consider an early phaseout” of Thar coal-based plants, as these plants rank at the top of the economic merit order due to strategic directives”, she said, adding that a phaseout of the imported coal fleet, however, would save billions.

For instance, the early retirement of the Sahiwal power plant could save up to $5 billion in “avoided capacity payments”, she noted.

Dr Muhammad Faheem Khokhar, head of the Environmental Sciences Department at the National University of Science and Technology, also made a similar argument. He told Dawn that Pakistan did not want to phase out coal, but “wants to make it cleaner” to reduce its carbon footprint.

Rehman, however, opined that featuring the carbon capture technology in the NDCs could be linked to its relevance with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement related to achieving emission reduction targets through carbon markets.

She said the technology was not financially viable for Pakistan. “With Pakistan facing dire economic challenges and its industrial sector being in a dismal state, acquiring CCUS is not viable in the near term.”

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group III (AR6 WGIII) provides information regarding the potential contribution of currently available mitigation options to net emission reduction by 2030, she said.

“Here it shows that carbon capture with utilisation (CCU) as a mitigation option incurs a higher cost compared to its emission reduction potential,” Rehman said, adding that solar and wind have a greater potential while being economically viable.

“This further strengthens the argument on Pakistan’s economic inability to pursue this pathway.”

Dr Khokhar agreed that the carbon capture technology was “very expensive globally” and “a very tedious job, besides being energy intensive”.

He also pointed out geographical limitations, like depleted oil and gas fields for carbon storage, in deploying this supposed solution.

Speaking about how much capturing one tonne of carbon would cost, Dr Khokhar said costs could range from $20 per tonne to $1000, depending on the nature of the technology being deployed.

“So, it’s roughly $20 per ton, plus additional transport and logistic costs… in a very ideal scenario so far… It does not involve storage,” he said, adding that merely capturing can go up to over $1000 “if you are focusing on just direct air capture”.

Similarly, the IEEFA also mentioned the unfeasibility of the carbon capture projects. “Projects from Algeria to Texas demonstrate the technology’s troubled history of cost overruns and delays. Yet an IEEFA review of 16 projects finds that even though the industry claims a 95 per cent capture rate is achievable, no existing project has consistently captured more than 80pc of carbon,” a note on its website read.

Despite its financial unviability, carbon capture technology is mentioned in the national climate goals because Pakistan is a “power-hungry country”, and a quest for a “rapid solution” has taken the country down this road.

This myopic pursuit of so-called cheap energy will likely end up in “another type of levy”, like the capacity charges being paid by power consumers.

Aslam noted that the CCUS had been proposed as “an implementable mitigative action” to feed this dependence on coal. While appreciating the moratorium on imported coal, she warned about the danger of reliance on locally sourced coal, particularly Thar coal, for its environmental costs.

Scientists agree that fossil fuels are the major driver of global warming, and adaptation efforts will only become costlier if temperatures continue to climb.

“Local coal still holds a 12pc share in annual electricity generated within the country, which is a low-quality lignite coal, causing three times as many emissions as the higher-quality imported coal,” according to Aslam.

Isaad said that Pakistan’s moratorium on imported coal-based power was officially instituted in 2021, but this excluded plants on local coal or those already in the pipeline, such as the Gwadar coal project.

“However, financing challenges with new capacity additions are quite significant in Pakistan, not to mention the surplus situation of the grid, so any new coal development does not seem likely,” she said, adding that the proposed use of CCUS against this backdrop “becomes even more complicated, especially when this technology is not deemed feasible” by experts.

Besides its economic costs, the CCUS has also been described by civil society as a false solution that would harm the environment in the name of climate action. This technology has been routinely promoted by the industry at climate conferences, where the presence of carbon capture lobbyists has attracted flak from civil society groups.

A statement issued by Transparency International during COP30 in 2025 took exception to the presence of 531 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) lobbyists in Belém. “These lobbyists are shaping the climate discourse by promoting ‘solutions’ from which they stand to profit, rather than taking responsibility for reducing their own emissions,” the statement quoted Brice Bohmer, climate and environment lead at Transparency International.

Available alternatives

According to the Nust professor, there are “cheap” carbon removal solutions available, which could remove carbon from the air, but he noted that their capacity was limited.

He said his institute at NUST also introduced the idea of a CO₂ arrester to capture carbon dioxide from the air and from tailpipe emissions, besides introducing ‘carbon bins’.

The carbon captured from these technologies can be permanently removed and used in other products, such as glass manufacturing, tannery industries, and pesticides, he told Dawn. “…Under my supervision, we are capturing CO₂, and then we’re converting it into methanol,” he said, proposing another homegrown solution.

Speaking about the carbon bins project, Rehman noted that it was an innovative approach tapping into alternative solutions, but the major concern was the economic feasibility, as this was also a technology-based solution.

“Another concern is its integration into the industry and what impact it may or may not have on the current industrial processes. Such details are crucial in determining the applicability of the available technologies,” she said.

“CDR is necessary as emission reduction delays globally make overshoot inevitable. However, on-ground realities of Pakistan must be considered to determine the feasibility of this tech,” the expert noted. As per the WRI, CCUS is not the same as carbon removal, which involves removing carbon dioxide (CDR) already present in the air.

Rehman favoured nature-based solutions for carbon removal.

All net-zero scenarios compatible with 1.5 °C (agreed under the 2015 Paris accord) use CDR solutions, which include nature-based solution (Nbs), a low-hanging fruit especially in Pakistan’s context.

One such example is mangroves, which provide greater carbon storage as compared to other trees and are native to Pakistan’s southeastern coastline, she said.

“Another alternative was bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), engineered carbon removal technology, which captures CO2 from biogenic sources (plants, agriculture residues, etc.) and stores it, with energy production as an additional benefit of this technology. The AFOLU-based mitigation actions in the AR6 report also have a higher potential towards net emission reduction,” the researcher noted.

These solutions, however, may ease the clean energy transition obstacles, according to experts, who added that phasing out fossil fuels is essential to stop global warming. “Investing in this expensive and unreliable technology will lock in fossil fuels and waste precious time and money that we cannot afford,” said Centre for International Environmental Law’s International Carbon Capture Campaigner Rachel Kennerley. “Large-scale CCS transport and storage also come with significant health and safety risks.”

Energy experts proposed a complete coal phaseout, however. “With the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and the world shifting away from coal and setting its net-zero targets, our government needs to step up and formally announce a definitive, legally binding national coal phaseout date, which applies to both imported and indigenous coal,” said Aslam.

Isaad, on the other hand, contested the idea of baseload power propagated by the government, saying that it is by “design and strategic preference” and not really a hurdle to phasing out coal.

Aslam further highlighted the importance of decarbonisation measures for a climate-vulnerable country like Pakistan.

“Without these (decarbonisation) measures in place, Pakistan’s positioning for procuring and securing climate finance becomes weakened,” warns Aslam.

Dawn reached out to Climate Change Minister Musadik Malik, the climate ministry’s public relations officer Rabia Habib, and Global Climate Change Impact Studies Centre head Arif Goheer for an official version, but despite repeated reminders, the response on why this costly solution was included in the climate goals was not received.

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Header image: Picture showing a coal power plant. For representation only. — Pixabay

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ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (Pims) said on Tuesday night that PTI founder Imran Khan was examined at Adiala jail for the follow-up treatment of his eye ailment, which showed that his vision had “improved remarkably”.

However, the party asserted that any medical examination carried out without the presence of Imran’s personal physicians and his immediate family lacked “transparency and credibility”.

In a press release, a copy of which is available with Dawn, the Pims administration said that Imran was examined by a medical board comprising Dr Nadeem Qureshi, the head of the vitreoretinal department at Al–Shifa Trust Eye Hospital in Rawalpindi, and Dr M Arif Khan, the head of the ophthalmology department at Pims, Islamabad.

The same team had examined Imran last month in Adiala jail, where the former premier is incarcerated.

“This examination was performed as a follow-up of his second dose of intravitreal injection of anti-VEGF,” the press release said.

According to the American Academy of Opthalmology, an anti-VGEF treatment reduces leaking abnormal blood vessels in the retina. This slows or stops damage from the abnormal blood vessels and slows down vision loss and may also improve vision.

The Pims press release said that during the examination, both of Imran’s eyes were examined for visual acuity, adding that doctors also conducted fundoscopy, slit lamp examination, and optical coherence tomography.

“The board concluded that his vision has improved remarkably, which is substantially good vision at this stage. The board recommended instructions for further care and treatment advice as previously planned,” it said.

Meanwhile, the PTI said it “categorically rejected” the press release issued by Pims.

“Any medical examination conducted without the presence of his personal physicians and his immediate family lacks transparency and credibility,” it said.

The party said that for months, serious concerns had been raised regarding PTI founder’s health, access to independent medical care and the denial of family-supervised evaluations.

“PTI reiterates its clear and non-negotiable demand that Imran Khan must be immediately examined in the presence of his personal physicians and his family members,” it stated.

“As per the wishes of his family, he must be shifted without delay to Shifa International Hospital for independent, transparent and comprehensive medical evaluation and treatment,” it said.

“Nothing short of this will be acceptable,” it added.

“The continued refusal to allow independent medical access only deepens public concern and raises serious questions. The health and well-being of Imran Khan cannot and will not be compromised,” it concluded.

Imran’s eye ailment — right central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO) — came to light in late January. His first medical procedure, which was carried out on January 24, was confirmed by the government five days after reports surfaced about it in the media.

Subsequently, Imran’s lawyer, Salman Safdar, told the Supreme Court that the former premier had lost a significant amount of vision in his right eye while in custody.

A five-member team had initially examined Imran at Adiala jail on Feb 15. On Feb 24, Imran was brought to Pims for a follow-up. According to a Pims doctor, Imran was brought to the hospital for a second dose of anti-VEGF intravitreal injection.

The government and the opposition have been engaged in a blame game, with the latter accusing the former of a lack of transparency on the matter, of not ensuring appropriate treatment for Imran, and of not allowing his personal physicians access to him. The government denies these allegations.

It should also be mentioned that 14 former international cricket captains, including Indian cricket greats Sunil Gavaskar and Kapil Dev, last month demanded better prison treatment for Imran, “one of the finest all-rounders” of the game.

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• Bombings on Beirut suburbs, southern towns trigger mass exodus
• Lebanese government outlaws Hezbollah military activities after attacks
• Israel issues evacuation warnings

BEIRUT: Hours after Israeli air strikes massacred at least 52 people across Lebanon on Monday, the Israeli military issued an evacuation warning for several towns, signaling another imminent strike.

Monday’s attacks marked a brutal escalation of hostilities following a retaliatory strike by the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah for the US-Israeli assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Israel’s military vowed to intensify its unrelenting assault on the country and make Hezbollah pay a “heavy price”. It launched several strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs and south Lebanon, both strongholds of the resistance.

The Israeli strikes wounded 154 on Monday, the Lebanese government said in an updated toll. A previous toll shared by the health ministry said 31 people were killed and 149 wounded.

In the capital’s southern suburbs, Israeli strikes tore through the top two floors of at least two buildings, an AFP photographer reported.

A fire blazed in one targeted apartment as the bombings triggered a mass exodus from the area. Families hastily fled their homes on motorcycles or in cars.

Further south, an AFP journalist in Sidon saw huge lines of cars packed with families escaping the attacks.

Hezbollah’s response came hours earlier, fulfilling a promise to avenge the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The movement announced on Monday that it had targeted an Israeli army site south of Haifa with “a barrage of high-quality missiles and a swarm of drones”.

The operation, it said, was “retaliation for the pure blood” of Khamenei, whose assassination on Saturday was the result of a joint US-Israeli operation against Iran. It was the first time Hezbollah had claimed an operation against the Zionist entity since a November 2024 ceasefire.

Israeli military officials responded with predictable threats. “Hezbollah chose the Iranian regime over the State of Lebanon and initiated an attack on our civilians… they will pay a heavy price,” Rafi Milo, head of the Israeli military’s Northern Command, said in a statement. “The strikes continue, their intensity will increase.”

Meanwhile Lebanon’s government sided against Hezbollah, announcing an “immediate ban” on its military and security activities as Israel’s bombardment continued.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called Hezbollah’s retaliatory rocket fire “irresponsible”.

After an emergency cabinet meeting, Salam declared the state’s “absolute and unequivocal rejection of any military or security actions launched from Lebanese territory outside the framework of its legitimate institutions”.

“This necessitates the immediate prohibition of all of Hezbollah’s security and military activities, considering them to be outside the law, and obliging it to hand over its weapons,” he said.

Salam ordered the military and security agencies to implement the decision and prevent “any military operation or the launching of missiles or drones from Lebanese territory”.

Published in Dawn, March 3rd, 2026

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ISLAMABAD: A senior security official on Monday dismissed speculation that after Iran, Pakistan could be the next target of US-Israeli military action, saying such perceptions were “devoid of facts” and were being spread by “agents of chaos”.

According to a brief shared with Dawn, the official said Pakistan was unlike Iran, that it was fully integrated with the world and fully capable of defending itself.

He said that those spreading “alarmist narratives” were pursuing “nefarious and vested interests.”

His remarks came amid an escalating war in the Middle East in which Israel and the United States, for the second time in eight months, launched coordinated strikes against Iran. Tehran retaliated by targeting Israeli territory and American military facilities in neighbouring countries, raising fears of a wider regional conflagration.

Following the US-Israeli airstrikes, there has been speculation and concerns that Pakistan could face similar aggression. Some analyses from Western think tanks had also speculated about potential spillover effects on nuclear-armed states in the region.

The security official, however, rejected any comparison.

“The misperception of Pakistan likely to be the next target is devoid of facts and is highly misplaced,” he said, according to the brief.

“Pakistan can never be equated with Iran as both countries are different militarily and in terms of foreign policy, external engagement and internal dynamics,” he added.

The official said Pakistan pursued “a robust foreign policy” and valued its relations with multiple global stakeholders. “We believe in engagement for the sake of stability and prosperity of the people of Pakistan,” he added.

According to the official, Pakistan’s relations with the rest of the world were based on “mutual respect and trust,” reflecting what is often described as a hedging strategy that includes balancing ties with Washington, Tehran and Riyadh while avoiding entanglement in bloc politics.

Unlike Iran’s adversarial posture towards the West, Pakistan maintains defence cooperation with Saudi Arabia, economic engagement with the United States and a working relationship with Iran, with whom it also shares a long border and limited trade links.

Officials say this multi-vector diplomacy is designed to secure economic stability, including energy security, while insulating the country from regional shocks.

‘Pakistan fully capable of defending its sovereignty’

On the military front, the official underscored deterrence.

“Pakistan is fully capable of defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity and the same has been displayed during recent events of Marka-i-Haq and our protracted fight against the scourge of terrorism,” he said.

“Marka-e-Haq” refers to Pakistan’s May 2025 military conflict with India, including the 96-hour Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos, in which 26 targets were struck.

The official said, “Pakistan’s armed forces, with the support of the brave and resilient nation, will thwart all nefarious designs of our enemies. Anyone having any doubt is most welcome to get his notions settled.”

On regional ties, the official said, “Pakistan greatly values its decade-old brotherly and strategic relations with Saudi Arabia,” underscoring Islamabad’s longstanding defence and economic partnership with Riyadh.

Speaking about the International Stabilisation Force (ISF), which is being set up by US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace for post-ceasefire arrangements in Gaza, the official said deliberations were ongoing.

“Details regarding ISF are yet to be worked out. The decision of Pakistan’s participation will be taken by government of Pakistan after due diligence,” he said, indicating that no commitment had yet been made and that the matter remained under review.

The official also addressed countrywide protests in Pakistan following the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Demonstrations were held in several cities, and at least 20 people lost their lives in related unrest.

“Pakistan has expressed concerns over unfortunate events in Iran,” the official said.

“While peaceful protest is the right of people, violence in the garb of protests cannot be condoned,” he added.

He warned that “any attempt to create chaos in the country will be dealt as per the law and few miscreants cannot be permitted to bring a bad name to peaceful protesters.”

‘In no hurry to end Operation Ghazab lil-Haq’

The security official also said that Pakistan was in no hurry to wind up Operation Ghazab lil-Haq and would continue cross-border action against terrorist sanctuaries inside Afghanistan until Kabul offered verifiable guarantees against terrorism facilitation.

“Pakistan is in no hurry to end Operation Ghazab lil-Haq. It’s time for terrorism supporters and abettors to bleed and suffer,” the official said according to the brief.

The operation was launched on Feb 26 after Afghan Taliban fighters attacked Pakistani border posts along the border, following Pakistani strikes four days earlier on terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan.

Islamabad says the Feb 22 strikes targeted infrastructure used by the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which the state refers to as Fitna-al-Khawarij, and other groups that are operating from Afghan soil.

Setting out Islamabad’s position, the official said: “Operations in Afghanistan will end when Afghanistan’s Taliban regime provides verifiable assurance of compliance with Pakistan’s demand of quitting the facilitation of Fitna-al-Khawarij and Fitna-al-Hindustan. We are in no hurry.”

The state has designated Balochistan-based groups as Fitna-al-Hindustan to highlight India’s alleged role in terrorism and destabilisation across Pakistan.

The security official further said that “the duration of Pakistan operations depends on actions on [the] ground by the Afghan Taliban regime,” indicating there was no fixed timeline and that de-escalation would be conditional.

The official said the Afghan Taliban must make a strategic choice.

“Afghan Taliban have to choose between Pakistan and terrorist groups operating from its soil.”

He described the Afghan Taliban as a “proxy master harbouring multiple terrorist groups to disturb regional peace,” saying that they were “flourishing on war economy in the garb of their perverted religious ideology” and that “their leaders’ only religion is money and nothing else.”

Islamabad has repeatedly accused Kabul of providing space to the TTP since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021. UN monitoring reports over the past two years have noted the TTP’s presence in eastern Afghanistan, though the Taliban deny offering support.

Defending the scope and conduct of the current campaign, the official said the targets were specific and intelligence-driven.

“Pakistan is targeting sanctuaries of terrorists and their facilitators who are harbouring them. These are legitimate self-defence targets of the war of terror imposed upon Pakistani citizens, mosques and children.

“Pakistan is not resorting to attacking random targets in Afghanistan, rather the infrastructure supportive of terrorist groups are specific targets,” he said.

The official said that during the ongoing Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, “we have destroyed more than 180 posts and captured more than 30 … All these are those posts from where terrorists were being facilitated as launch pads.”

The official also accused Kabul and New Delhi of orchestrating a disinformation campaign.

“The Afghan Taliban regime and their Indian masters are consistently resorting to concocted propaganda and false information through their official accounts. Please fact-check everything. Afghan Taliban official accounts have no credibility.”

He also clarified that Pakistan’s actions were not directed at Afghan civilians.

“We have no issue with the people of Afghanistan; our operations are focused on those perverted kharjis and their supporters who perpetrate and support acts of terrorism inside Pakistan.”

“Pakistan’s operations against terrorists in Afghanistan have received positive response from oppressed Afghan communities and minorities.”

Rejecting suggestions that Islamabad was pursuing regime change in Kabul, the official added: “Pakistan has nothing to do with regime change in Afghanistan, it is the prerogative of the Afghan people. They are happy that someone has stood up to these cruel warlords.”

‘No interest in politics’

He also linked the army’s sustained involvement in internal security to domestic governance shortcomings.

“Pakistan Army’s involvement in internal security is due to governance gaps. Our involvement is because of the non-implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) in totality and the politicisation of institutions that are primarily responsible for internal security,” he said.

“That’s why we ask all political parties and governments for better governance and NAP implementation. We have no interest in politics and other matters.”

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• Israeli military says ‘unaware of the attack’
• US claims strike reports being looked into
• Malala urges all states, parties to ‘safeguard schools’

PARIS: The death toll from the Israeli strikes that hit a girls’ school in southern Iran surged to 148, with nearly 100 others wounded, Al Jazeera reported.

While Iranian officials claimed the attack on the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in the Minab city killed more than 100 people, neither the United States nor Israel confirmed that any such attack has taken place.

Israel’s military on Sunday said it was “not aware” of any US or Israeli strike on any school in Iran.

When asked about the strikes on school, Israel’s military spokesman Lt-Col Nadav Shoshani said, “At this point not aware of an Israeli or an American strike there… We’re operating in an extremely accurate manner.”

However, The New York Times later quoted a CENTCOM spokesperson as saying: “We are aware of reports concerning civilian harm resulting from ongoing military operations. We take these reports seriously and are looking into them.”

“The protection of civilians is of utmost importance, and we will continue to take all precautions available to minimise the risk of unintended harm.”

Video and photographs from the aftermath of the strike, which have been verified as authentic and geo-located to the site, show hundreds of people gathered around the partially collapsed, smoking building, with rubble strewn across the street and men digging through it for victims. Screams can be heard in the background. In some of the images, schoolbags and textbooks are being pulled from the debris.

Norway-based rights group Hengaw said the Shajare Tayyebeh school was holding its morning session at the time of the incident, which reportedly had about 170 students present.

The Nobel peace prize laureate and girls’ education advocate, Malala Yousafzai, said in a statement, “They were girls who went to school to learn, with hopes and dreams for their future. Today, their lives were brutally cut short.

“Justice and accountability must follow. All states and parties must uphold their obligations under international law to protect civilians and safeguard schools.”

Published in Dawn, March 2nd, 2026

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has ordered its stock markets closed on Monday and Tuesday as the country reels from Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes, in a sign of the growing economic disruption sweeping the Gulf.

Iran carried out the strikes in Gulf countries that have US bases and assets after joint attacks on the Islamic republic by Israel and America.

The UAE Capital Markets Authority said the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain shut on March 2 and March 3, citing its supervisory and regulatory role over the country’s capital markets.

“The Authority will continue to monitor developments in the region and assess the situation on an ongoing basis, taking any further measures as necessary,” it said in a statement.

The UAE’s two exchanges are home to some of the region’s most valuable listed companies.

The closure keeps billions of dollars in listed assets in suspension as investors await clarity on the scale of damage from Saturday and Sunday’s strikes, which hit airports, ports and residential areas across the UAE and broader Gulf region.

Gulf markets that did open on Sunday saw sharp declines. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index fell more than four per cent at the open, Oman dropped 3pc and Egypt’s main index shed 5.44pc, while Kuwait suspended trading entirely.

All parties were advised to follow official UAE Capital Markets Authority, ADX and DFM channels for updates on the resumption of trading.

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If the war between Iran and the United States escalates, the single biggest economic threat to Pakistan will come from oil.

Brent crude settled around $72.5 a barrel on Friday, already up nearly 19 per cent year-to-date, according to CNBC. Rumours are swirling of oil touching $100.

For Pakistan, even modest increases carry heavy consequences.

For every $10 rise in oil prices, the current account deficit increases by roughly $1.5–$2 billion, explains former chief executive officer of the Pakistan Business Council, Ehsan Malik.

“If prices were to climb to $100, the deficit could expand by $5–$7bn on an annualised basis, potentially undoing recent gains that allowed FY25 to post a $2bn current account surplus.”

Markets are extremely erratic right now, says energy analyst Syed Rashid Husain.

Iran produces roughly 3–3.5 million barrels of oil per day, exporting about 1–1.5m barrels. While this is far lower than the output of the United States (about 13.5m barrels per day) or Saudi Arabia (around 9–10m), even a loss of one million barrels per day can tighten global balances and push prices higher.

Compounding the risk is the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20pc of global oil consumption passes. For years, Iran has threatened to block this passage during periods of heightened conflict.

According to Reuters, oil and gas shipments through the area have already faced disruption, with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reportedly warning ships that passage is not permitted, although Tehran has not formally confirmed such an order.

Analysts say scenarios range from limited disruptions to Iranian exports to a full blockade of Hormuz.

The ripple effects are already visible. Late Saturday night, petrol prices at pumps in Canada had risen by roughly 10–15 cents per litre, Husain said, speaking from experience.

Russia-Ukraine crisis flashbacks

For Pakistan, the situation evokes the economic horror of the Russia–Ukraine war. During 2022-23, Brent crude hovered around $100–125 per barrel, leading Pakistan to float perilously close to sovereign default.

The chain reaction was brutal. The war pushed up oil prices, widening Pakistan’s import bill and putting pressure on the exchange rate. The rupee slid from around Rs170 per dollar in early 2022 to a peak of Rs305 on Aug 28, 2023, before stabilising in the Rs270–280 range toward the end of that year.

There was, however, an important cushion at the time. Despite sanctions, Russia still exported oil and gas by hook or by crook to many countries; Pakistan also tried to get oil from Russia, and India became a major importer of Russian oil.

Since then, however, the US has pressured India to stop importing and tightened the screws on all of Russia’s supplies. If Iranian barrels are disrupted simultaneously, two significant discounted supply streams could disappear, pushing crude firmly into triple-digit territory if tensions do not de-escalate.

There are already signs of strain. Saudi Aramco has reportedly not allocated a March cargo to a Pakistani refinery amid volatility in global oil markets. Uncertainty in global crude trade has made it difficult to secure shipments for March, and this was before the news of the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Marine insurers are also considering repricing or cancelling policies in parts of the Middle East, according to reports.

A chain reaction and the IMF

Oil prices have a multiplier effect as they impact secondary markets.

For example, edible oil prices — of which Pakistan imported roughly $3.7bn in FY25 — are indirectly linked to crude oil markets, Malik explains.

Much of the economic breathing space that enabled recent stabilisation came from relatively stable global commodity prices.

“For every $10 increase in oil prices, Pakistan’s inflation typically rises by about 0.5–0.6 percentage points,” says Waqas Ghani, Head of Equity Research at JS Global Capital.

If oil prices surge, inflation would rise again, making further policy rate cuts unlikely.

Industry would face higher input costs, weakening exports. At the same time, fiscal space would shrink, limiting the government’s ability to lower taxes or provide relief, adds Malik.

“The veneer of stability has been damaged,” says Ammar H Khan, Professor of Practice at the Institute of Business Administration Karachi. Capital outflows could increase, or new investment could slow, hurting job creation and — at the margins — reducing demand for migrant labour abroad.

These repercussions may also extend to remittances, which are vital for keeping the current account afloat.

Even if the conflict lasts only a few days and does not turn into a prolonged war, heightened regional risk can weigh on financial flows, he adds.

All this is taking place in the background of talks with the visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) team. Industry sources say there had been positive talks with the Fund regarding possible tax relief in the upcoming budget. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also emphasised the need to reduce direct tax rates.

However, given the current global uncertainty, meaningful relief now appears unlikely.

Pakistan was already receiving very little foreign direct investment, notes M Abdul Aleem, secretary general of the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

“What little was in the pipelines, like investments in Reko Diq, will slow down for now,” he says.

“Equally concerning is the law-and-order environment, particularly when it involves the safety of foreign nationals.”

Referring to the recent incident at the US consulate in Karachi, he said stronger preventive security measures should have been in place.

PSX and gold

For equity markets, the implications extend beyond macroeconomic concerns.

Pakistan’s manufacturing sectors rely heavily on imported raw materials and energy inputs. “Take the cement sector as an example,” says Waqas Ghani, Head of Equity Research. “It relies on coal and petcoke as key inputs. If oil prices rise, the prices of these fuels also increase, raising production costs.”

Because many industries depend on imported inputs across the value chain, higher commodity prices quickly squeeze profit margins.

“When input costs rise, margins come under pressure, and corporate earnings can deteriorate,” he said. “Apart from oil and exploration companies, most sectors would face headwinds.”

Beyond fundamentals, market sentiment itself has turned cautious.

“Investors are already becoming more risk-averse,” Ghani noted. “When uncertainty rises, equities are usually the first asset class where investors reduce exposure.”

Several technical factors are also amplifying selling pressure. Foreign investors have been net sellers in recent weeks, while mutual funds are facing redemption pressures from retail investors. When investors withdraw money, fund managers are forced to liquidate holdings, increasing supply in the market.

“At the same time, settlement dynamics can intensify the pressure,” Ghani added. The Pakistan Stock Exchange currently operates on a T+1 settlement cycle, while the banking system operates on a T+2 cycle, which can create short-term liquidity stress for brokers and investors during periods of volatility.

“All these factors combined can create a downward spiral where selling feeds on itself,” he said.

For now, the key trigger that could stabilise markets would be a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions.

“If the conflict subsides and oil prices stabilise, sentiment could recover fairly quickly,” Ghani said. “But until then, markets are likely to remain under stress.”

Much, however, will depend on how global markets react when trading begins.

“It all depends on the evolving situation and any ceasefire news,” said Muhammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities. “A lot will hinge on how US futures open, along with the trend in oil prices and Asian markets.”

Pakistani stocks are likely to fall initially, he added, though the extent will depend on developments overnight. Some markets that opened on Sunday were already down close to two per cent.

Ali Nawaz, CEO of Chase Securities, expects early weakness in trading when it begins.

“The market is likely to see a decline in the opening hours, driven by investor concerns over the US-Iran conflict, the broader Middle East situation and rising oil prices,” he said.

However, he expects the pressure to ease as the week progresses.

“A recovery could follow as the situation moves towards resolution and institutional investors step in for value buying,” Nawaz said. Given the market’s recent corrections, further declines may create attractive valuations for investors, echoing the age-old advice to buy the dip.

As the Pakistan Stock Market bleeds, investors may turn to gold, which is expected to surge. On Saturday, local gold prices jumped by Rs10,000 per tola in Pakistan. Qasim Shikarpuri, president of the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association, expects international prices to rise by $200–$300 per ounce once markets reopen.

“If that happens, local gold prices could surge by as much as Rs60,000 per tola,” he said.

Bazaars and shopping

Retailers say geopolitical tensions are already affecting shopping activity during Ramazan, a critical sales period for bazaars and malls.

“We have seen this before,” said Asfandyar Farrukh, Chairman of the Chainstore Association of Pakistan. “Even a few days ago, when tensions flared between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and warnings were issued, there was an immediate impact.”

The effect is most visible over the weekend, when shopping activity typically peaks.

“Weekend footfall is usually the highest, especially on Sundays. But in such situations, visitor numbers can fall by half,” he said.

If the tensions subside quickly, retailers expect the slowdown to be temporary.

“If things improve within two or three days, the lost sales can be made up,” he said. “But if uncertainty continues through Ramazan, then the impact could become more significant.”

According to Farrukh, shoppers tend to adjust their behaviour during prolonged uncertainty rather than abandoning shopping altogether.

“People still need to shop for Eid. What they usually do is go out earlier in the day or spread their visits over time,” he said. “But overall, there could still be a 20–25pc decline in footfall during periods of heightened tension.”

Retail activity during Ramazan typically peaks in the final ten days before Eid, though momentum had only recently begun building in markets.

“The last ten days are usually when Ramazan shopping really accelerates,” he said. “But we are already beginning to see some slowdown.”

Farrukh does not expect security concerns to push shoppers significantly toward online retail.

“Eid shopping is an experience. People want to see the fabric, the material, the footwear, hence they prefer to visit markets,” he said. “Online shopping has been growing, but it does not replace the Eid shopping experience.”

Instead, the larger risk for retail spending comes from rising fuel prices.

“If oil prices surge, that will have the biggest impact on consumer spending,” he said. “Fuel prices have already increased, and further hikes are expected. If this situation continues for several days, it would directly affect household spending.”

A path for de-escalation?

Ultimately, much will depend on whether the conflict escalates or finds an off-ramp.

“Domestic politics in the United States may ultimately shape how far this confrontation goes. The US faces congressional midterm elections in November 2026,” notes Husain.

With the American economy already grappling with tariff shocks and a cooling job market amid massive AI investments, the cost of living remains a top voter concern. Surveys cited by The Wall Street Journal show that inflation and household costs remain the most persistent economic complaints.

If gas prices surge sharply, it could damage Republicans at the ballot box, potentially costing them control of the House or the Senate and undermining the administration’s ability to pass major legislation.

That may explain why Donald Trump has suggested there are several “off-ramps” from the military operation, in recent comments to media outlet Axios. Trump is also facing pressure from how own Make America Great Again (MAGA) political base to avoid a prolonged Middle East intervention.

Equally important is Iran’s reaction.

“Iranians have historically been pragmatic in such circumstances,” Husain said. After the killing of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020 and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in 2024, Tehran’s responses were calibrated.

“There will almost certainly be face-saving measures,” Husain said. “But if past behaviour is any guide, those may eventually be accompanied by efforts to de-escalate as well.”

Pakistan has paid a heavy price on its path to stabilisation. Its fragile economic recovery relies heavily on stable oil prices. The difference between escalation and restraint could mean the difference between continued stabilisation and another severe macroeconomic shock.

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Header image: In this file photo, pumpjacks are seen against the setting sun at the Daqing oil field in Heilongjiang province, China, on December 7, 2018. — Reuters

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