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The 34th day of the US-Israel war against Iran unfolded in the immediate aftermath of US President Donald Trump’s speech, which, rather than opening any pathway to de-escalation, appeared to have hardened positions across the conflict spectrum. The remarks triggered swift Iranian retaliation, and reinforced a trajectory of sustained attrition with an increasingly central focus on economic pressure and maritime control.

In his speech, Trump declared that US and Israeli objectives were nearing completion, while committing to another two to three weeks of intensified strikes and warning that Iran could be pushed “back to the Stone Age” if it failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s formulation looked to be a combination of coercive diplomacy and continued military escalation, even as it left ambiguity over the precise end state being sought.

The immediate Iranian response underscored the limited deterrent effect of the speech as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched one of its largest single-night barrages in recent weeks within minutes of the address, including ballistic missiles targeting central Israel, particularly the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, alongside drone and missile strikes on Gulf targets. The Iranian response underscored both its capability and intent to escalate in parallel domains.

Over the past 24 hours, kinetic operations have continued at a high tempo. US and Israeli forces conducted multiple strikes across Iran, including more than 20 reported hits in the greater Tehran area as well as additional operations in Isfahan and Mashhad, and targeted maritime infrastructure such as facilities on Qeshm Island.

Strikes on the B1 bridge in Karaj and the century-old Pasteur Institute, which is also being described as an icon of Iran’s healthcare system, have, meanwhile, emerged as symbolically significant hits on civilian infrastructure. The Pasteur Institute attack was the latest in the series of attacks undertaken by the Israeli/US alliance on the Iranian pharmaceutical industry and healthcare facilities.

Iran, meanwhile, expanded the scope of its retaliatory campaign carrying out strikes against US and Israeli assets across the Gulf, including the destruction of early-warning radar systems in the United Arab Emirates, a hit on a tanker linked to Israel that was left burning, and attacks on US command facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, alongside a drone swarm directed at USS Abraham Lincoln, which was subsequently reported to have re-positioned further into the Indian Ocean.

Proxy fronts also showed signs of qualitative escalation, where Hezbollah carried out its first use of longer-range Scud-type missiles from Lebanon targeting Israeli military installations, while the Houthis signalled their readiness to expand the maritime dimension of the conflict by potentially moving to close the Bab el-Mandab Strait if Gulf states increased their involvement.

Despite the intensity of operations, there were isolated indications of tactical adjustments, including the absence of US bomber sorties during a specific overnight window, which some Iranian sources interpreted as a sign of temporary restraint, though this remained unconfirmed by official channels and did not translate into any broader reduction in operational tempo.

On the political front, Iran’s leadership maintained a firm rejection of negotiations under current conditions, with senior figures reiterating demands for sanctions relief and compensation for war damages as preconditions for any talks, while official messaging framed the conflict as an existential defence and emphasised resilience in the face of attacks on civilian and scientific infrastructure.

International reactions to Trump’s speech revealed growing divergence within the Western and allied camp. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and former German chancellor Olaf Scholz, publicly cautioned against the efficacy of military solutions and called for negotiated off-ramps. Simultaneously, a UK-led diplomatic initiative has begun to take shape involving European and other partners, notably excluding the United States, in an effort to explore alternative pathways to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, China attributed responsibility for the worsening crisis and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to US and Israeli actions, urging an immediate ceasefire. Gulf states on their part were quietly reassessing their strategic posture amid concerns that the conflict, which is increasingly being seen as externally driven, was imposing disproportionate risks on their own economic and security environments.

The economic fallout of the war intensified further after Trump’s speech as oil prices rose sharply and maritime insurance costs escalated in view of the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively contested, reinforcing the view that economic disruption, rather than purely military outcomes, is likely to be the decisive factor shaping the eventual course of the conflict.

Overall, the happenings of Day 34 confirmed that Trump’s speech entrenched a self-reinforcing escalation dynamic in which neither side sees immediate incentive to compromise. US and Israeli forces continued to apply sustained military pressure, while Iran retained sufficient asymmetric capability to impose costs and maintain strategic leverage, particularly through control over critical energy chokepoints.

With no credible diplomatic breakthrough in sight and parallel diplomatic efforts struggling to gain traction, the conflict is set to continue along its current path of high-intensity attrition. The immediate outlook is being shaped by the interplay between Iranian retaliation, allied military operations, and the mounting economic consequences that are increasingly defining the stakes of the war.

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Header image: A camera screen shows US President Donald Trump speaking during a televised address on the conflict in the Middle East from the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, DC on April 1. — AFP

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MUZAFFARABAD: The Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) High Court on Thursday ruled that Afghan nationals residing in the region, even if subject to repatriation policies, could not be detained or deported without due process of law and directed the government to immediately establish a legal mechanism to regulate such cases.

In a detailed judgment authored by Justice Syed Shahid Bahar, the court disposed of three identical constitutional petitions challenging the detention of Afghan nationals allegedly taken into police custody for repatriation.

The petitioners had contended that despite possessing valid documents and residing lawfully in AJK for decades, they were taken into custody by police without lawful justification and faced imminent deportation. The government, in its reply, maintained that Afghan nationals were being taken into custody as a precautionary measure under a broader repatriation policy, though it conceded that no specific criminal charges had been levelled against them. 

The court observed that while foreigners did not enjoy a vested right to permanent residence, they were entitled to legal protection and due process during the validity of their stay. It said that a valid visa conferred a limited but lawful right of residence, and action against a foreign national before its expiry could only be taken on specific grounds such as fraud, violation of visa conditions or threats to public order.

The court further ruled that deportation must be preceded by cancellation of visa, where applicable, and carried out strictly in accordance with law, declaring that arbitrary detention or informal “pushback” without formal legal proceedings was unlawful.

Highlighting gaps in the implementation of the law, the judge noted that under the AJK Foreigners Act, 1952, action against foreign nationals must originate from a duly appointed “civil authority”. However, it was conceded by the government’s law officer that no such authority had yet been formally appointed, rendering the initiation of proceedings legally deficient. 

Terming the matter one of “first impression” involving significant constitutional and humanitarian considerations, Justice Bahar underscored that Afghan nationals who had been residing in AJK for decades — in some cases spanning three generations — could not be treated at par with recent undocumented entrants.

The judgment also emphasised that family ties, including marriages between Afghan nationals and local residents, warranted protection under constitutional principles safeguarding family life. It suggested that such cases required a more nuanced and humane approach rather than blanket repatriation measures. 

While recognising the government’s authority over matters relating to foreign nationals and repatriation, the court urged it to adopt a structured and differentiated approach. It observed that undocumented entrants could be dealt with strictly in accordance with policy, while long-term residents, including those integrated into local society through family and business ties, required humanitarian consideration. Similarly, cases of visa holders or those with lawful entry documents were to be examined separately, even in instances of overstay.

 The court further observed that where deportation was deemed necessary, reasonable time should be afforded to affected individuals to wind up businesses and settle their affairs on a case-to-case basis.

 Disposing of the petitions, the court issued key directions to the government, including the immediate appointment of civil authorities in all districts to handle cases under the Foreigners Act, mandatory reporting of arrests to the government within five days, and expeditious, case-by-case decisions regarding the status of detained Afghan nationals.

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WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump signalled that the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran could conclude within weeks, even as he warned of intensified strikes and issued sweeping claims about the scale of damage inflicted on Tehran.

In a 19-minute prime-time address from the White House, Trump described the conflict as a “decisive, overwhelming victory” and said the United States was “getting very close” to finishing the “job” in Iran.

“We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We are going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong,” Trump said during the address from the White House. “In the meantime, discussions are ongoing.”

While suggesting that the war may soon end, the president made clear that military operations would intensify before any resolution. He did not define the terms of the “deal” he is demanding from Tehran, nor did he outline a diplomatic framework.

Trump claimed Iran’s military capacity had been severely degraded. He said its missiles and drone systems have been “dramatically curtailed and their weapons factories and rocket launches are being blown to pieces.” He further asserted that “never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks.”

At the same time, he acknowledged that Iran continues to retaliate, though he maintained that its “ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed.”

The president said nuclear facilities had been struck again in recent days and declared that “it would take months to get near the nuclear dust,” indicating that material buried under rubble no longer concerned him.

Reiterating a position he says he has held for years, Trump stated that Iran would never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons “from the very first day I announced my campaign for president in 2015.”

He alleged that Iran had “raced for a nuclear weapon like no one has ever seen before,” a claim disputed by neutral observers.

Linking the present conflict to past US policy, he argued that Israel’s survival would have been jeopardised had the 2015 nuclear agreement remained intact. “Israel wouldn’t exist if the Obama nuclear agreement had continued,” he said.

In one of the most striking remarks of the evening, Trump denied pursuing regime change but suggested it had effectively occurred. “Regime change was not our goal. We never said regime change, but regime change has occurred because of all of their original leaders’ death. They’re all dead.”

The president also addressed concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which about 20pc of global oil passes. He predicted that it would “open up naturally” and urged countries dependent on Gulf energy to assume responsibility for securing it. “We will be helpful, but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on,” he said.

Oil markets reacted during the speech. According to The New York Times, prices were down when Trump began speaking but rose by more than 3 per cent by the time he finished. Asian markets showed a muted initial response.

Although Trump briefly mentioned the economic consequences of the war for ordinary Americans, he largely brushed off the concerns as temporary and argued that the economy remained strong.

Seeking to reassure an American public wary of prolonged foreign entanglements, Trump compared the current operation to past wars. He listed US involvement in World War I (1 year, 7 months, 5 days), World War II (3 years, 8 months, 25 days), the Korean War (3 years, 1 month, 2 days), the Vietnam War (19 years, 5 months, 29 days), and the Iraq War (8 years, 8 months, 28 days). The present conflict, he noted, has lasted 32 days.

“It’s very important that we keep this conflict in perspective,” Trump said. “We are in this military operation so powerful, so brilliant against one of the most powerful countries for 32 days, and the country has been eviscerated and essentially is really no longer a threat. … This is a true investment in your children and your grandchildren’s future.”

Despite the confident tone, the address contained no new announcements and largely repeated positions the president has advanced in recent days.

The absence of a clearly defined diplomatic path, combined with promises of intensified strikes over the next two to three weeks, leaves open questions about whether the conflict is truly nearing its end or entering a more volatile phase.

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Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter, addressing the American people, calling on them to question the motives of the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran.

Below is the full text of his letter.

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“In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful

“To the people of the United States of America, and to all those who, amid a flood of distortions and manufactured narratives, continue to seek the truth and aspire to a better life:

“Iran — by this very name, character, and identity — is one of the oldest continuous civilisations in human history. Despite its historical and geographical advantages at various times, Iran has never, in its modern history, chosen the path of aggression, expansion, colonialism, or domination. Even after enduring occupation, invasion, and sustained pressure from global powers — and despite possessing military superiority over many of its neighbours — Iran has never initiated a war. Yet it has resolutely and bravely repelled those who have attacked it.

“The Iranian people harbour no enmity toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighbouring countries. Even in the face of repeated foreign interventions and pressures throughout their proud history, Iranians have consistently drawn a clear distinction between governments and the peoples they govern. This is a deeply rooted principle in Iranian culture and collective consciousness — not a temporary political stance.

“For this reason, portraying Iran as a threat is neither consistent with historical reality nor with present-day observable facts. Such a perception is the product of political and economic whims of the powerful — the need to manufacture an enemy in order to justify pressure, maintain military dominance, sustain the arms industry, and control strategic markets. In such an environment, if a threat does not exist, it is invented.

“Within this same framework, the United States has concentrated the largest number of its forces, bases, and military capabilities around Iran — a country that, at least since the founding of the United States, has never initiated a war. Recent American aggressions launched from these very bases have demonstrated how threatening such a military presence truly is. Naturally, no country confronted with such conditions would forgo strengthening its defensive capabilities. What Iran has done — and continues to do — is a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defence, and by no means an initiation of war or aggression.

“Relations between Iran and the United States were not originally hostile, and early interactions between the Iranian and American people were not marred with hostility or tension. The turning point, however, was the 1953 coup d’etat — an illegal American intervention aimed at preventing the nationalisation of Iran’s own resources. That coup disrupted Iran’s democratic process, reinstated dictatorship, and sowed deep distrust among Iranians toward US policies. This distrust deepened further with America’s support for the Shah’s regime, its backing of Saddam Hussein during the imposed war of the 1980s, the imposition of the longest and most comprehensive sanctions in modern history, and ultimately, unprovoked military aggression — twice, in the midst of negotiations —against Iran.

“Yet all these pressures have failed to weaken Iran. On the contrary, the country has grown stronger in many areas: literacy rates have tripled —from roughly 30 per cent before the Islamic Revolution to over 90pc today; higher education has expanded dramatically; significant advances have been achieved in modern technology; healthcare services have improved; and infrastructure has developed at a pace and scale incomparable to the past. These are measurable, observable realities that stand independent of fabricated narratives.

“At the same time, the destructive and inhumane impact of sanctions, war, and aggression on the lives of the resilient Iranian people must not be underestimated. The continuation of military aggression and recent bombings profoundly affect people’s lives, attitudes, and perspectives. This reflects a fundamental human truth: when war inflicts irreparable harm on lives, homes, cities, and futures, people will not remain indifferent toward those responsible.

“This raises a fundamental question: Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war? Was there any objective threat from Iran to justify such behavior? Does the massacre of innocent children, the destruction of cancer-treatment pharmaceutical facilities, or boasting about bombing a country ‘back to the stone ages’ serve any purpose other than further damaging the United States’ global standing?

“Iran pursued negotiations, reached an agreement, and fulfilled all its commitments. The decision to withdraw from that agreement, escalate toward confrontation, and launch two acts of aggression in the midst of negotiations were destructive choices made by the US government —choices that served the delusions of a foreign aggressor.

“Attacking Iran’s vital infrastructure — including energy and industrial facilities — directly targets the Iranian people. Beyond constituting a war crime, such actions carry consequences that extend far beyond Iran’s borders. They generate instability, increase human and economic costs, and perpetuate cycles of tension, planting seeds of resentment that will endure for years. This is not a demonstration of strength; it is a sign of strategic bewilderment and an inability to achieve a sustainable solution.

“Is it not also the case that America has entered this aggression as a proxy for Israel, influenced and manipulated by that regime? Is it not true that Israel, by manufacturing an Iranian threat, seeks to divert global attention away from its crimes toward the Palestinians? Is it not evident that Israel now aims to fight Iran to the last American soldier and the last American taxpayer dollar — shifting the burden of its delusions onto Iran, the region, and the United States itself in pursuit of illegitimate interests?

“Is ‘America First’ truly among the priorities of the US government today?

“I invite you to look beyond the machinery of misinformation — an integral part of this aggression — and instead speak with those who have visited Iran. Observe the many accomplished Iranian immigrants —educated in Iran — who now teach and conduct research at the world’s most prestigious universities, or contribute to the most advanced technology firms in the West. Do these realities align with the distortions you are being told about Iran and its people?

“Today, the world stands at crossroads. Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before. The choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential; its outcome will shape the future for generations to come. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors. All that remains of them are tarnished names in history, while Iran endures —resilient, dignified, and proud.”

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Header image: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian attends a press conference in Tehran, Iran, September 16, 2024.— Reuters

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ISLAMABAD: PPP Chairperson Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, along with other leaders from his party, called on Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman at his residence in Islamabad on Wednesday, with statements by both parties saying that political matters were discussed during the meeting.

Bilawal was accompanied by PPP leaders Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, Nayyar Bukhari and Chaudhry Yasin while JUI-F’s Asad Mehmood was also present on the occasion.

A source privy to the matter told Dawn the meeting focused primarily on political matters and elections in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Both sides agreed to continue consultations on the matter, the source added.

The meeting took place three days after the AJK Election Commission announced on Sunday that the schedule for the upcoming Legislative Assembly elections was expected to be announced in May.

Meanwhile, elections in GB are also expected to be held later this year after the GB chief election commissioner announced in December last year that polls, earlier scheduled for January, were to be delayed due to harsh weather conditions in the region.

A senior JUI-F official signalled while speaking to Dawn that the PPP also expressed reservations during the meeting about what it described as instances of “hasty legislation” by the government.

The sources said that the two sides also discussed future legislative cooperation and agreed to maintain coordination on key parliamentary issues while PPP leaders also voiced concerns about the provisions of a possible 28th constitutional amendment.

According to the sources, Bilawal agreed with some of Fazl’s views, particularly regarding the legislative process. JUI-F chief, in turn, emphasised that rushed lawmaking could undermine the credibility of Parliament, the sources said.

They also said that Fazl was of the view that any reduction in provincial autonomy granted under the 18th Amendment should not be approved by Parliament without thorough discussions.

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ISLAMABAD: Telecom companies (telcos) and banks faced-off on Wednesday before a Senate panel meeting that focused on complaints by bank customers regarding being overcharged through regulatory or unauthorised messaging services.

Representatives of the banks and telcos blamed each other for charging an extra fee — which collectively amounts to Rs26 billion — to bank customers during the meeting.

This led the Senate Standing Committee on Finance, led by PPP Senator Saleem Mandviwalla, to dig deep into the matter and ask both sides, as well as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), to provide their transaction details and rates of service charges.

The meeting also decided to seek the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority’s (PTA) assistance. Some senators were of the view that banks should not separately charge SMS fees, and that it should either be included in their service charges or rationalised.

At the outset, Pakistan Banking Association (PBA) President Zafar Masud said there were two types of SMS charges, pertaining to the mandatory regulatory requirement of the SBP and transaction-related messages, and none of them were discretionary.

Assisted by the presidents of Habib Bank, Muslim Commercial Bank and Meezan Bank, Masud said the banks were charging their customers for only transaction-related messages, with the upfront consent of customers, in the interest of their security, and to avoid fraud and unauthorised transactions in their accounts. Moreover, he said, the schedules of the charges were declared regularly by the banks.

He said the charges did not meet the cost of SMS services.

The banks paid around Rs25.6bn to the telecom companies while they got only Rs18.7bn from customers, which left them with a loss of Rs7bn, he said, adding that telcos’ rates charged to banks had gone up by 88 per cent since 2021. And 88pc customers were now using digital accounts and mobile apps that no longer required SMSs, he said.

The PBA chief said that telcos charged around 60 paisa per SMS to their own customers for similar messages but around Rs2.6 to Rs3.4 per message to banks, despite the latter being bulk and corporate clients, which was “unreasonable”.

SBP Deputy Governor Dr Inayat Hussain argued that some regulatory SMS were mandatory and should be free of cost under the SBP rules. He, however, opposed seeking details from banks about SMS-related financials, saying it would be very difficult.

Muddassir Husain from Jazz, who led the telcos’ representatives, said SMSs were one of the core parts of their business. But, he also pointed out that banks seldom send 2-3 messages to customers per day, which meant that customers were charged around Rs300 per month at the most. The banks, however, were charging more than Rs400 to their customers, he said, adding that the telcos also applied similar rates to the Benazir Income Support Programme.

Senator Anusha Rehman said the actual cost of an SMS was one or two paisa, and telcos even offered 300-500 free SMSs to their customers per month. However, charging Rs2.5-3.5 per message meant the banks or telcos or both were involved in arbitrage charging, she said, adding that this should be investigated and rationalised.

During the meeting, it was revealed that the banks and telcos did not have direct settlement arrangements but operated through third parties called aggregators who got messages from banks or telcos and then sent them to customers. The panel decided to discuss the matter again in its next meeting on the basis of details received from both sides.

It also discussed the issue of non-payment of the budget honorarium announced by the finance minister to the medical and PTV staff deputed at Parliament House during the budget session. The committee chairperson directed that the matter should be immediately referred to the finance minister for approval and payment of the honourarium. Otherwise, the committee would take stern action against non-compliance, he warned.

The matter of salary increments for university faculty members and professors under the tenure track system (TTS) was also taken up. The committee was informed that university staff had been deprived of annual salary increases for the past 10 years. The panel termed this situation a clear injustice to the staff.

Minister of State for Finance and Revenue Bilal Azhar Kayani assured the panel that the matter would be taken up with the relevant authorities and a report would be submitted within 15 days.

The meeting also took up the matter raised by the Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry regarding the classification of polyurethane (PU) leather. Pakistan Customs briefed the committee that PU fell under the category of textiles rather than leather as it contained fabric backing on one side, and the importer was liable to pay taxes as per the prescribed category. The representatives of the chamber said that it was a type of leather and not fabric, and that it should be treated as such under the relevant law for import.

Federal Board of Revenue Chairman Rashid Mahmood Langrial advised the affected parties to file an appeal with FBR’s policy member for further consideration and direction, and the committee endorsed the recommendation.

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The government is finalising a plan to curb summer electricity consumption through scheduled outages, compulsory conservation measures, and higher tariffs as cooling demand rises in the coming weeks. The move reflects a deepening fuel shortage caused by a complete disruption of LNG supplies, constrained Thar coal output, and costly alternatives like furnace oil and imported coal. With peak demand expected at 27–28 GW, officials say daily power cuts and steeper bills are unavoidable

Pakistan’s ongoing energy stress, triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, stems primarily from two shocks: the total disruption of Qatari LNG imports — already reflected in reduced utilisation of gas-fired plants — and the escalating cost of other imported fossil fuels such as oil and coal, the full impact of which has yet to be felt by consumers and the economy.

Dr Khalid Waleed of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) estimates that a full summer blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could cut 8,800 GWh of RLNG-based generation. “With replacement fuel premiums costing an additional Rs100-110 billion and idle capacity charges of RLNG plants amounting to Rs35bn, tariffs will go up by Rs6–8/kWh through emergency FCA adjustments. Average residential bills may exceed Rs55–60/kWh,” he warned. He added that the foreign exchange impact would ripple across sectors, as emergency procurement of Residual Fuel Oil (RFO) and coal at war-driven premiums, along with fertiliser imports of 1.5–2 million tonnes to replace lost RLNG-based urea production, likely costing $2.5-3.5bn in a single quarter.

Peak electricity demand expected to hit 27-28GW

The key questions confronting Pakistani policymakers, therefore, are how to fill the power generation gap caused by the LNG supply disruption and how to keep electricity prices stable despite rising global fuel costs. The government’s response revolves around three measures: increasing the use of domestic gas and indigenous coal in the power generation, expanding reliance on imported coal, and, in emergencies, increase the use of oil.

“While the first step being considered by the government makes sense in the short run, the second and third steps are not viable even briefly given the rising costs of coal and oil in the international market and Pakistan’s fragile financial position to finance their import,” argued Manzoor Ahmed, a researcher at the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED).

“It is also clear that Pakistan cannot go back to LNG-based power generation even in the medium term because its main supplier, Qatar, will require a couple of years to resume its supplies disrupted by the war.”

Mr Ahmed noted that domestic gas could offer short-term relief but cannot fully bridge the power gap over time. Currently, it meets less than 70pc of demand, and even optimistic new discoveries are unlikely to close the deficit in the coming years.

He added that much of this gas is tied to fertiliser production, vital for agriculture. Diverting it to power generation would disrupt fertiliser supply, raise prices, and harm farm output, undermining a sector that has sustained growth as Pakistan’s manufacturing base has struggled in recent years.

Energy experts say that domestic coal also faces supply constraints due to weak investor interest, delays in construction of a railway line to transport coal and other factors from Thar to other parts of the country. The sponsors of coal mines are also finding it difficult to finalise coal purchase agreements with prospective buyers.

‘Global coal markets highly volatile’

The option of increasing coal imports from Indonesia and South Africa, relatively insulated from the Middle East conflict, to boost power generation remains less feasible. While prices remain below the 2022-23 peaks, Mr Ahmed warned that global coal markets are highly volatile. He noted prices have already risen about 30pc in the first month of the Iran conflict. With major consumers like India, Korea and Indonesia delaying coal plant retirements, demand and prices are expected to rise further.

This leaves one viable medium- to long-term solution: accelerating the ongoing shift towards solar energy and supporting it with battery storage systems.

Over the past eight years, Pakistan has seen a dramatic surge in solar adoption. A joint PRIED-TransitionZero report estimates that 51,000MW of solar capacity was imported between 2017 and 2025 at a cost of $7bn, with about 33,000MW already installed. Another study by Renewables First and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air finds this boom has reshaped the energy mix, helping shield consumers from immediate LNG supply shocks and price spikes amid the war in Gulf.

Experts highlight that China has played a central Pakistan’s solar transformation, reshaping the economics of its energy transition. Its vast manufacturing scale, integrated supply chains and state-backed policies have sharply reduced global photovoltaic prices, making solar one of the cheapest power sources worldwide. This decline, reinforced by an influx of low-cost Chinese panels, enabled Pakistan – with zero-rated import taxes – to rapidly scale adoption.

The economic benefits have been compelling for households, farmers and businesses facing high tariffs and unreliable grid supply, as solar offers predictable long-term savings. Easy access to Chinese technology has removed supply bottlenecks, driving a consumer-led shift to distributed solar at an unprecedented speed. Beyond affordability, this expansion has strengthened energy security by reducing reliance on imported fuels such as LNG, partially insulating the country from external supply shocks, experts said.

However, this rapid growth has also revealed a critical structural imbalance. Solar generation, by its nature, primarily meets daytime demand. The real challenge emerges during summer nights, when air-conditioning demand peaks but solar output drops to zero due to near-zero battery adoption. As a result, even solar-equipped households remain dependent on the grid after sunset.

Dr Waleed noted that 10-18GW of distributed rooftop solar installed in recent years displaces 3,500–4,000 GWh of grid demand during daylight hours in a summer quarter, absorbing up to one-third of the shortfall. “However, output drops to zero after sunset, shifting the entire evening peak back to thermal generation. In a Hormuz blockade scenario, this would lead to severe night-time load-shedding. With no battery storage capacity, excess daytime solar cannot be utilised during peak evening hours, he explained.

Mr Ahmed emphasised that Pakistan’s subsidy-free solar boom shows strong consumer willingness to invest, provided the government avoids deterrents like taxes on panels or restrictive net-metering policies. He criticised the lack of support for low-income groups, noting that over 25pc of Pakistanis still lack electricity despite the potential of decentralised solar systems.

He argued that expanding solar access would not require major grid investments and could unlock economic opportunities. The government should remove taxes on solar equipment, offer subsidised schemes for low-income households, and support mini- and micro-grids for localised energy distribution.

Mr Ahmed also warned that rising global demand for Chinese solar panels could increase prices, making timely policy support essential. Sustaining solar growth is vital, he added, as it has already saved $5bn–$12bn in fuel imports since 2018 and can further protect foreign exchange reserves.

“Second phase”

More importantly, he stressed that the government should remove all taxes on the import of battery energy storage systems (BESS) and related equipment, he argued. This would trigger a “second phase” of Pakistan’s solar transition by improving energy independence and security. He noted that global demand for batteries is rising as countries turn to China for supply, pushing prices higher, making timely policy support essential.

Published in Dawn, April 1st, 2026

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