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OVER the past few days, Pakistan has been going the extra mile to assure Iran that the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement it signed last week with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye poses no threat to Tehran.

In a recent telephone call, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi that the pact is “not an instrument of confrontation”. Moreover, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told the cabinet that the agreement is “entirely for defence purposes”.

Tehran seems to have understood the messaging, as the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said his country had no reason to believe the pact was aimed at encircling it, and that it showed that countries of the region could not depend on the American security umbrella.

Perhaps the reason for speculation surrounding the deal was the mutual defence component, which says that an attack on one signatory is an attack on all. Considering the targeting of US military assets in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states by Iran during the active phase of hostilities with America, observers have debated whether the signatories of the deal could step in militarily. However, the clarifications regarding Iran are welcome. In fact, what is needed is a new regional security architecture that binds the Arabs, Iranians and other states together.

Achieving this would be difficult, considering the pro-America stance of the GCC states. However, the American military footprint in the Gulf and larger Middle East may eventually shrink, which means that regional states will have to eventually work out a security framework amongst themselves. The Makkah pact could provide a blueprint for such defence cooperation. The Turkish president has already said that the pact is open to other countries.

If Iran were to be brought on board, it could significantly alter the regional security landscape. For this to happen, the existing high levels of mistrust between the Arabs, particularly Saudi Arabia, and the Iranians, would need to be reduced. But states such as Pakistan and Turkiye, which maintain cordial ties with both sides, can attempt to bridge the gap. As a CBM, Iran should open up the Strait of Hormuz, as its continued closure is battering Gulf economies. The Arab states should also pledge to disallow outsiders from staging aggression against Iran from their soil.

Instead of depending on extra-regional powers, the states of the Gulf and Middle East must themselves create a new security architecture. Not only would this reduce the tensions that exist between them, it could also serve as an expanded defence pact to deter Israel from attacking regional states. Tel Aviv has attacked Iran and its allies, as well as pro-America states like Qatar, hence an effective regional defensive bloc could make Israel think twice about its violent adventurism.

Published in Dawn, August 12th, 2026

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After more than five months of conflict, oil markets continue to surge and tumble over the latest developments in the US-Iran clash, including United States President Donald Trump’s shifting pronouncements.

What is behind the market’s volatility?

The ‘shock’ of Hormuz

While the potential vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz has long been viewed as a risk, oil markets have still been caught off guard by Iran’s ability to largely close the crucial waterway.

“What really shakes the market are surprises… and the Hormuz closure was a shock,” said Jim Burkhard, head of global energy crude oil research at S&P Global.

Brent oil prices surged more than 13 per cent in the immediate aftermath of the US-Israeli siege against Iran on February 28. Since that time, prices have been jolted in both directions as the conflict has dragged on.

“Number one, it’s the complete unexpectedness, unfamiliarity with what we are seeing,” Bob McNally, president of the Rapidian Energy Group and a former White House energy advisor to George W. Bush, said of the unprecedented curtailment of the Strait.

“There was this perception that the US would never allow it to happen,” McNally added.

About 20 million barrels per day of crude traverse the Strait, roughly a quarter of global oil demand, making the current supply shock “the biggest disruption in history”, according to McNally.

Subsequent events have jerked prices in both directions. Markets were unnerved by the US move to blockade Iran’s ports, but subsequently buoyed by a June 17 agreement between the United States and Iran to cease hostilities.

An imminent resolution?

While the conflict has boosted prices overall, international benchmark Brent oil has averaged $94 a barrel since the start of the fighting, well below the $150-per-barrel level seen by some experts as possible.

One explanation is the market’s response to Trump, who has issued contradictory statements but has often described a Hormuz resolution as within striking distance. Such statements have helped keep crude prices from rising more.

“The market believes and still believes that this crisis can and will end soon,” McNally said.

Optimistic statements by the president and other Trump administration figures like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have often sent oil prices sharply lower, posing peril to traders on the wrong side.

“The oil market has sort of burned the bulls so many times you just don’t have bulls willing to go in and trade,” McNally said. “So all you have is people who are trading, especially these algorithmic traders who are just trading on headlines.”

The Hormuz closure has lowered volumes by about 12.6m barrels per day, according to JPMorgan Chase analysts.

Some of this has been blunted by lower crude imports from China, while releases from commercial and government inventories have also offset the effects of lost supply.

In March, the International Energy Agency announced member governments would release 400m barrels of oil, the largest emergency stock release in history.

The US, Canada and Brazil have been among the countries increasing output.

Middle East producers have maneuvered some shipments away from the Strait.

For example, Saudi Arabia shifted crude exports to the Red Sea, but that avenue has also been compromised by attacks by Houthi rebels.

Not just oil

While the fluctuations of crude prices generate most of the headlines, analysts have also highlighted the stresses on refined products, including gasoline.

“The most pressure in the world today is on refined products because there is generally enough crude oil out there right now, but there’s not enough refining capacity,” Burkhard said.

Diesel prices have doubled compared with February, while gasoline prices are up about 50pc.

The Middle East conflict has also sidelined key energy infrastructure due to attacks, including some refinery capacity. Energy experts also point to Russian refinery outages due to attacks from Ukraine in that war.

Continued robust demand for petroleum products has led to a historic surge in refinery profit margins, resulting in huge earnings windfalls for large oil companies in the second quarter.

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KARACHI: As Pakistan faces one of the gravest development challenges of our time, DawnMedia is set to host a landmark national conference on malnutrition and stunting.

‘Act for Nutrition’ will be held on Sept 2 and 3 at the Serena Hotel, Islamabad, to shed light on “the emergency we can no longer ignore”, DawnMedia said in a statement.

According to the statement, about 40 per cent of children in Pakistan under the age of five are stunted, while the country has one of the highest child malnutrition numbers in the world.

“Maternal malnutrition, widespread micronutrient deficiencies, food insecurity, poor infant feeding practices, rapid population growth and persistent poverty continue to reinforce a cycle of deprivation that spans generations,” the statement said.

According to recent estimates, Pakistan loses nearly $17 billion annually due to the economic consequences of malnutrition and undernutrition.

Recognising nutrition as fundamentally an economic, governance and developmental challenge, and not solely as a health issue, “Act for Nutrition seeks to elevate malnutrition from a fragmented public health concern to a national development priority”.

The conference will bring together policymakers, development partners, healthcare professionals, economists, academics, civil society organisations, humanitarian agencies, and the private sector for two days of evidence-based dialogue.

Speakers will examine the country’s nutrition landscape through interconnected lenses of poverty, health, education, climate resilience, governance, and human rights.

The principal partners of the conference are the Sindh health ministry, the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and English Biscuit Manufacturers.

The knowledge partners include Globesight, International Research Force, and the Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health Research Network. The organisations bring together expertise to strengthen the dialogue around nutrition and child development in the country.

“Act for Nutrition marks the beginning of a long-term natio­nal movement — one that recognises investing in maternal and child nutrition as among the most powerful investments Pak­i­stan can make in its future prosperity, resilience, and human capital,” the statement said.

Published in Dawn, August 11th, 2026

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The government on Monday kept the prices of petrol and high-speed diesel unchanged as Platts prices were not published on August 10.

Petrol will continue to be sold at Rs327.62 per litre, while HSD will cost Rs380.86 per litre. The government continues to levy Rs114 per litre in taxes and duties on petrol and Rs100 per litre on HSD.

According to the Petroleum Division’s notification, the new prices will be applicable on August 11.

The price of HSD has come down from a peak of Rs520.35 recorded on April 3. Its price had started rising from Rs281 per litre after the US-Iran war broke out on February 28.

The petrol price had peaked at Rs458.41 on April 3 after beginning its upward trajectory from Rs266 in the first week of March.

Earlier, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik announced that fuel prices would now be fixed on a daily basis due to fluctuations in international market prices following renewed hostilities between Iran and the US.

The government had been announcing weekly revisions to fuel prices since early March, alongside measures for the conservation of fuel amid possible oil supply disruptions due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The federal government in April also announced targeted relief measures to provide subsidised fuel.

The petroleum minister stated that the cabinet and the prime minister had decided to give the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) the responsibility of deciding fuel prices on a daily basis based on international market trends.

The daily pricing decision was rejected by the All Pakistan Dealers Association, which said it would consider a protest plan.

Petrol is mainly used in private transport, small vehicles, rickshaws and two-wheelers, and changes in its price affect the middle and lower-middle classes.

Similarly, changes in diesel prices also impact the public at large, as it is mainly used in the heavy transport sector, power plants and large generators.

Petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) are the major revenue earners, with monthly sales of about 700,000 to 800,000 tonnes, compared to just 10,000 tonnes of monthly demand for kerosene.

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Between July and August, things are brought to almost a halt across much of Europe. Italy shuts down for Ferragosto, the French vanish on les grandes vacances, and the German offices empty out. During this window, everything — deadlines, emails, occasional sovereign crisis — can wait.

For Pakistani economy nerds, late summer means something completely different, though no less exciting if you are warped enough. It’s because by this time, the data for fiscal year-end starts being released, giving a complete picture of how things panned out.

Of all the numbers that land in this season, it is banking that appeals to me the most for a multitude of reasons. For starters, it has had quite an enviable run the past few years and remains highly profitable even as other parts of the economy struggle. Second, its data reporting is relatively richer and granular than most other sectors.

Starting with the liabilities side, total deposits reached Rs39.8 trillion by FY26, up 15 per cent over the previous year. That’s a fairly impressive haul considering the size of the industry, where any incremental change requires hundreds of billions of rupees to move the needle.

Loans to SMEs crossed Rs1tr for the first time in FY26, surging by an impressive 37pc over the preceding period

But these are nominal figures and are naturally helped by inflation, which was just north of 11pc in FY26. To see whether the industry has expanded its reach or not, we need a relative measure. Deposits as a percentage of GDP reached 31.4pc by June. While this marks a continuous upward trajectory over the last few years, the ratio still remains slightly short of the preceding decade’s average.

Category-wise breakdown shows non-bank financial institutions to be leading the growth charts, up 48.9pc to Rs2.9tr by FY26. This is part of a recent history of the non-bank financial institutions’ balance sheet expansion, which saves the best of its movements at year ends when banking needs wild swings.

Meanwhile, individuals continue to make up the lion’s share, though their contribution in the overall pie has dwindled over the last few years and now stands at 45.5pc, worth Rs18.1tr. More worryingly, private sector businesses were the major laggard, with a five year compound annual growth rate of 13.3pc against the overall rate of 15.8pc, and have lost 2.2 percentage points in relative share since FY21.

On the asset side, the story is a bit more mixed: total credit to the private sector rose 14.8pc to Rs11.4tr by June, from Rs9.9tr the year before. Of this, businesses understandably comprised the bulk at Rs9.6tr, jumping by 14pc over FY25, while personal financing grew much faster at 25.2pc, albeit over a far smaller base, to cross Rs1.5tr in FY26.

However, loans only play a supporting character in the banking balance sheet, with advances-to-deposits ratio consistently hovering below 40pc since May 2025. The lead role has also been performed by the government, which gets most of the funds, as clear from investments-to-deposits of over 100pc.

Notwithstanding the banality of aggregates, there have been a few important shakeups in the credit ecosystem lately. After years of stagnancy, we are now seeing a revival in loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), crossing Rs1tr for the first time to reach Rs1.046tr by June, surging by an impressive 37pc over the preceding period. This comes out to be 10.66pc of the total private business loans, up 1.8 percentage points over FY25 and marks the highest level in at least 8 years.

While the base effect has helped partially, let’s not downplay the underlying shift. This is not a one-off increase, as SME loans have risen at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17pc, outpacing the 10pc rate seen in the non-SME segment. A closer analysis reveals this to be a story of two halves where non-SME loans were in the driving seat between FY21 and FY23, rising by 11.1pc CAGR, almost 2x as fast as the SME segment. However, the trend reversed over the next three years.

Within the SME book, more than half has consistently gone towards the services sector, clocking in at Rs570bn by FY26. On the other hand, there has been a recomposition among the other two groups, even as the absolute values continue to rise, with agri’s share in the total rising from not even 1pc in FY19 to around 12pc by FY26 – with the amount increasing at a five year CAGR of 62pc to Rs130bn. In relative terms, the industry has lagged behind, up by a much more modest 21pc over the preceding year to end of June at Rs346bn.

Drilling one level further into the subsectoral divisions shows how narrow the book is. Of the 79 subsectors the State Bank of Pakistan reports, only 15 carry an SME book above Rs10bn, and the top three alone — retail trade (Rs178bn), wholesale trade (Rs164bn) and crop and animal production (Rs130bn) — account for 45pc of outstanding credit and 57pc of everything added since FY21.

Though the progress is unmistakable, it needs to be viewed against the broader policy targets. In the National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS) 2024-2028, the State Bank had set a goal of SME loans worth 10pc of the private sector credit by FY28. That number has already been breached, two years before the deadline.

Unfortunately, things are never as simple as progress reports show, and require some historical context. We find exactly that in the previous edition of the NFIS, where the share of SME loans as a proportion of private credit was supposed to reach 17pc by FY23. So when performance fails to catch up, the trick is to shift the goalpost.

The writer is co-founder of Data Darbar and Head of InsightLab at KSBL.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 10th, 2026

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SOUTH WAZIRISTAN: The administrations of Lower South Waziristan, Upper South Waziristan and Tank have imposed Section 144 in several areas of the three districts for August 10 (Monday), citing security concerns and directing residents to avoid unnecessary movement during the specified hours.

Section 144 of the Code of Criminal Procedure (CrPC) is a legal provision that empowers district administrations to prohibit an assembly of four or more people in an area for a limited period.

The deputy commissioners (DCs) of the three districts issued separate notifications on Sunday evening, imposing restrictions on movement between 6am and 7pm, as well as ordering the closure of markets and business centres in the specified areas.

The administrations of Upper and Lower South Waziristan have also directed motorists to stop their vehicles at least 50 metres before reaching security personnel and for all passengers to get out of the vehicles.

They warned that unauthorised movement or violation of the restrictions would invite action under the law.

According to the notification issued by the Lower South Waziristan administration, a curfew will remain in force in Wana tehsil from 6am to 7pm on Monday. During the curfew, all kinds of movement will remain prohibited, and markets and business centres in certain areas will remain closed.

DC Musarrat Zaman said several important roads and connecting routes in and around Wana would also remain closed to general traffic during the restrictions.

The affected routes include the road from Wana through Tiarza Gate, Karb Kot, Tanai and Azizabad Chowk up to Dargai Bridge. The route from Gul Kuch through Toi Khullah to Tanai has also been included in the restricted areas.

The administration said movement on the affected routes would only be allowed in an emergency and with prior permission from the police or security forces. People travelling for an emergency would be required to produce their national identity cards and other relevant documents to security personnel.

Residents have been directed to follow the instructions of security personnel during the curfew.

Meanwhile, Upper South Waziristan DC Irfan Ali said Section 144 would remain in force in the Sarwekai and Ladha tehsils of Upper South Waziristan from 6am to 7pm on Monday.

All kinds of movement would remain restricted in the notified areas, while markets and business centres would remain closed during the period.

Several major routes in Upper South Waziristan have also been declared out of bounds. These include the route from Ladha through Makeen, Tabai Sar, Bibi Raghzai, Kotkai and Spinkai Raghzai to Nazar Khel.

The route from Dargai Bridge through Medi Jan, Sheen Warsak, Mola Khan Sarai and Chagmalai to Jandola has also been included in the restrictions.

Similarly, the route from Sarwekai through Mola Khan Sarai to Barwand will remain closed to general traffic during the notified period.

The Upper South Waziristan administration said only emergency movement would be permitted on the affected roads and that travellers would have to obtain permission from the police or security forces.

In Tank district, DC Jamshed Khan said Section 144 would be enforced in Jandola subdivision from 6am to 7pm on Monday.

The restrictions would cover Jandola bazaar and other notified areas, where all business centres would remain closed and general movement would be prohibited during the specified hours.

According to the notification issued by the Tank administration, the route from Kour fort through Khargai to Jandola and up to the boundary between Tank district and Upper South Waziristan would remain closed. Jandola bazaar has also been included in the restricted area.

Another affected route runs from Dabra through Kour fort, Gardavi, Gomal Zam Dam and Gulgi Kot to Dabra and up to the boundary between Tank district and Lower South Waziristan. Kor bazaar has also been included in the restrictions.

The three district administrations have appealed to residents, traders, transporters and travellers to avoid unnecessary movement during the specified hours and remain at home unless there is an unavoidable emergency.

The restrictions are expected to affect movement between the three districts, which are geographically connected through several major roads and link routes. The authorities have therefore included some inter-district routes in the notifications to regulate movement during the specified period.

Residents have been urged to plan their travel accordingly and avoid the affected routes on August 10 to prevent inconvenience.

The district administrations of Upper and Lower South Waziristan had also imposed Section 144 in several areas in June due to security concerns and the movement of security forces.

South Waziristan, as well as the rest of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, has been facing terrorism for a long time.

According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), violence linked to terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism operations intensified sharply in July, making it the deadliest month of 2026.

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In only a few years, the surveillance start-up Flock has installed more than 100,000 license plate reader cameras across the United States.

But a grassroots movement upset over privacy concerns is fighting back — even going so far as systematically vandalising the equipment.

The first time he decided to trash one of the cameras, a self-styled vigilante wearing all black and known as Nomark says he was “super nervous”.

Now, after disabling about 30 of the devices near his home in the Minneapolis area, he told AFP: “I’m not really as scared anymore.”

Flock cameras are installed by police departments, homeowners’ associations and businesses, ostensibly to catch criminals in the act. Data is uploaded to Flock’s cloud and can be shared with subscribers.

But opponents are outraged at what they say is a dangerous tool that can be used to infringe on American privacy and civil liberties.

At just 20 years old, Nomark offers his 500,000 Instagram followers a how-to guide for rendering the cameras useless, raising awareness about the devices.

His detractors point out — correctly — that his actions are illegal, but like-minded individuals have followed suit nationwide over the past few weeks.

Instead of being dismissed as a radical fringe outfit, the anti-Flock movement is taking hold.

Its proponents have been active online for months, creating crowdsourced maps of cameras, sharing ways to block their lenses, and hailing the “heroes” who are arrested for destroying them.

The Facebook group DeFlock America has more than 600,000 members, and is gaining thousands more by the day.

Massive database

Flock cameras differ from traditional surveillance cameras in that they do not record video footage.

Instead, they take still images of vehicles, capturing the make, model, colour, license plate data and other distinguishing features such as bumper stickers.

And unlike classic surveillance cameras, which are not networked, this data is stored for up to a month and shareable, sometimes across state lines.

Opponents say this gives police an overwhelming look into the private lives of law-abiding Americans.

Jon Bridges, a police official in Virginia’s state capital Richmond, says that for “practically any crime that has a connection with a vehicle or a vehicle involved, we will at least query the database to see if there’s anything there”. His department has used Flock since 2023.

Bridges gave an example of how useful the technology can be: during the investigation of a domestic-related double homicide in May, police quickly identified a suspect who fled the scene in his pick-up truck.

Detectives retrieved his license plate data and entered an alert in Flock’s system. When he appeared on another camera, officers in a neighbouring county arrested him.

Potential abuses

Detractors fear that this allows officers to track vehicles without warrants, opening the door to a host of possible abuses of power.

According to an investigation done by The Washington Post, at least 50 police officers have been accused of misusing the Flock system, most of them to spy on the comings and goings of their romantic partners or exes.

In other cases reported in US media, cops used Flock to track women who had abortions — illegal in several US states. Some illegally sent data from the system to immigration agents.

Flock CEO Garrett Langley has accused some opponents of being “terrorists,” stoking the fire.

“There is really an incredible grassroots movement against Flock,” said Chad Marlow, senior policy counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union, calling its growth “stunning”.

The movement has support on both the political left and right, notably from libertarians.

Former Fox News host and conservative heavyweight Tucker Carlson has called the vandals “decent, patriotic Americans” who are simply “taking matters into their own hands.”

Across the country, local groups are pushing their lawmakers to step back from Flock.

Steven Keener, a professor of criminology at Christopher Newport University in Virginia, said residents can meet with city council members or mayors to convince them to cancel their contracts with the surveillance company.

So far, such grassroots efforts are proving successful.

From Los Angeles to small towns in Virginia, more than 70 municipalities have ended their association with Flock in recent months, according to an ACLU tally.

For Keener, the movement stands out in a country riven by political divisions.

“Because decisions are at the local level, people realise that they can actually make a difference,” he told AFP.

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