Afghanistan is experiencing another foreign force leaving its ground after over 40 years. The country had been a ground of foreign occupation since 1979 with violent conflicts and wars. The geostrategic importance of the country, and its vast human and natural resources, have been a source of attraction to many foreign occupiers. The country had been a battlefield for the powers during the period of bipolarity and had been the focus of the unipole superpower; the USA, despite the Afghan resistance to the foreign interventions.
It is, however, evident from history and the current situation that the foreign actors do not tend to stay forever in the country and eventually withdraw their forces from Afghanistan. The USSR left Afghanistan in 1989 after staying there for nine years and now the USA, after a nearly two-decade military presence, has decided to leave Afghanistan by 11 September 2021. Both the foreign states had their reasons to come and leave from Afghanistan, whether it was for preservation of communist ideology or to fight against terrorism, these states eventually left Afghanistan. The withdrawal of the USSR had left serious repercussions for Afghanistan, it changed the entire dynamics of the domestic, regional, and international affairs. Now, as the USA has decided to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan many analysts believe that history is all set to repeat itself.
it is worth investigating the future of Afghanistan, as to where it is heading after the US withdrawal. Will Afghanistan again face the same results as it did after Soviet withdrawal?
The withdrawal of Soviet forces back in 1988 led to chaotic circumstances for Afghanistan. The state fell into a civil war and this paved a ground for the terrorists’ groups to operate from. This time, President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan by 11 September 2021 had become a serious concern for stakeholders in Afghanistan and in the international world.
This is not the first time that the foreign troops are leaving the country. The USSR withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, the communist government lost control and infighting started between the seven groups of Mujahideen for the share of power. The withdrawal of Soviet forces created a power vacuum which the non-state actors aimed to fill in. One such group was the Taliban, a small spontaneous group headed by Mullah Omar, which marked their presence in Afghanistan by capturing important provinces like Herat and Kabul.
The chain of events in Afghanistan suggests that the country might face similar consequences as it did before; infighting between groups leading to civil war, terrorist activities and once again the Afghan government toppling and the Taliban coming into power. Whether the Taliban will make any concessions under their emirate rule is yet to be seen.
The people are now skeptical that Afghanistan might again fall into a civil war with US and NATO forces rapidly withdrawing their troops from Afghanistan. This time as well there are numerous groups present in Afghanistan with Taliban and the Afghan government the major group, that are fighting for the share of power. The Afghan government does not have the potential to form a stable peaceful government due to its previous records of corruption and misgovernance. But the USA had declared to assist the government with air support.
On the other hand, the Taliban have a clear strategy by heading towards a military superiority in the state with capturing choke points and border areas. With the Taliban strong on the ground and Afghan government achieving superiority in air command and logistics, infighting will make the security situation in Afghanistan likely to deteriorate.
Like in 1988 when Soviets left, Afghanistan became a ground for terrorists’ groups, with no central authority and a totally chaotic environment providing a safe haven for the terrorist groups to carry on their activities. Two prominent groups since the time of Soviets; the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, share same ideological vision and assist each other in major projects, most notably the “Jihadist project” that serves as a religious obligation for them.
This time the Taliban are ready to break ties with ISIS but their actions towards Al-Qaeda are rather wary. There is expected a re-emergence of Taliban and Al-Qaeda particularly in the eastern and southern parts of Afghanistan. The USA, however, made sure in their deal with the Taliban that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda will not use Afghanistan soil to initiate terrorist activities against the USA. But many are still not sure that the Taliban will keep the deals intact.
Peace negotiations in Afghanistan had never been able to ensure a long enduring peace in the country. The Geneva Accord signed in 1988 at the time of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan had a major shortcoming, that it did not include one of the major stakeholders in the country, the Mujahideen. Eventually the Accord could not assure peace in the country and civil war started. The Peace negotiations leading to US withdrawal may again not be able to ensure peace and even before the foreign forces were completely out, violence has already started in Afghanistan. The peace deal struck between the USA and the Taliban in early 2020 had made both the parties agree that intra-Afghan talks will be held to ensure peace. However, before any deal is signed between the two, the USA is rapidly taking its forces out of Afghanistan. This time again no conditions for security guarantees had been set before leaving the country. The US had not set any conditions dealing with a possible failure of the peace process. What if the Taliban continue fighting and Afghanistan again goes through a period of civil war? What if the Afghan government is completely defeated by the Taliban?
One of the clauses of the US-Taliban deal was complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. As US and NATO forces are moving out of the country, the Taliban are expanding their control. The immature structure of the government can lead to the re-emergence of the Taliban once again. But are the Taliban the same as they were back in 2001? Many analysts assume that the USA is trying to create a narrative around the world that the Taliban have changed, and their views are different now, to justify their withdrawal from Afghanistan. But with the Taliban establishing power in different districts in the country, the people report that nothing changed in the Taliban’s policies. They are still as brutal as they were before, executing people, flogging women, demolishing schools, and so on. Taliban holds the same ideological vision they had in 2001. They are against democracy and want to impose Islamic shariah law in the country. A “new emirate” established under the Taliban with true Islamic values has been the basic agenda of the Taliban since 2001.
Afghanistan had experienced foreign interventions throughout its history with drastic consequences. The chain of events in Afghanistan suggests that the country might face similar consequences as it did before; infighting between groups leading to civil war, terrorist activities and once again the Afghan government toppling and the Taliban coming into power. Whether the Taliban will make any concessions under their emirate rule is yet to be seen.
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